After a gut wrenching loss to Nevada, it's finally time to enter conference play. This week we will be taking on the Beast of the East behemoth that is known as Bowling Green. It was a nice breath of fresh air this week while simulating this game because we were able to put together some good wins. Anyway, Bowling Green is a stacked team. The biggest thing they can brag about is their QB, Matt Johnson (Which is really weird to say because that's my brother's name). Johnson is relentless in his passing attack as he averages over 400 passing yards per game. That's a big feat by itself let alone the fact that they played three Power 5 teams this year in non-con. This team can be beaten though.

Here's the general simulation results:

What a nice sight to see after dealing with some brutal simulations the past two weeks. This may come as a shock to everyone but we're favored to win. The site makes separate predictions every week and we are still favored by them to win 27-22 (I think the owners of this site are in the illuminati). Rarely did Bowling Green blow us out. Essentially, this is a good indicator that maybe we're just putting ourselves down too much because of the ineptitude of our offense recently.

Player Stat Highlights

1. Licata gets back on track

Joe Licata has had an interesting three weeks to say the least. He just hasn't looked like the QB we had last year. The only really good game so far was against Albany and that was expected. Anyway, according to these simulations, Licata shows us why he's a senior QB. 3 and 4 touchdown games were not uncommon which in my opinion should be expected. Bowling Green's defense is like swiss cheese and Licata shouldn't have problems with airing it out in this game.

2. This is what we want

For many of the MAC QB's, this would be a decent day (besides the two INT's). Unfortunately this would be an absolutely horrid day for BG's Matt Johnson (He averages 3 TD's a game). UB will win this game if the defense shuts him down this badly. If the passing yard total is that low, then consider the Falcons' offense useless.

3. The rushing game is strong

Jordan Johnson lights it up as the second RB this week. Typically, Johnson and Taylor had two touchdowns between them which is good news for a rush attack that was almost nonexistent last week. (see: Setting up the run with a pass)

Keys for UB to Win the Game

1. Give me your best shot (or kick), Adam Mitcheson

A lot of these games were close when the 3rd quarter came around. What gave us the win often was many successful field goal attempts by Mitcheson. There was one game that we won where he made 4 of them. I don't think people have been paying to our freshman kicker but he has improved since the start of the season in my opinion. Last week he was able to make 33 and 43 yard field goal. 43 yards isn't too shabby for a freshman kicker.

2. Keep Matt Johnson to 300 passing yards or less

We won most games in which this happened. When Johnson isn't passing nearly as much, he has to start running the ball. What this does it slows down this air it out offense a ton. All we need is Ross and Baker to be great at breaking up passes and force BG to resort to the run game.

3. Early BG Turnover = UB Win

I don't know why, but every time UB forced a turnover of some sorts early in the going, Matt Johnson just has a bad game. His stats become a shell of what he was in the previous games. A good example of this is #2 from the player stat highlight section above. Don't get me wrong, 220 yards isn't terrible but only one passing touchdown is a tether to this falcon offense (see what I did there?).

4. Establish a good running game early

I wish I could put "establish a good everything" as a key to the game but this will suffice. BG has a terrible run defense (and a worse passing defense). Get the ball rolling by overwhelming this defense to the point where it's really hard for them to make stops. Set up the pass with a good running game and this will be a tough offense to stop. (If Joe, Anthone, or Jordan reads this, please do not actually roll the ball)

5. It's all about that Willoughbeast-Weezer Combination

This WR-TE combo is poised for another great game. Our offensive success was shown through some great receiving by these two throughout this simulation. I expect one of them to get two touchdowns. Don't forget Collin Lisa either, he's becoming more and more of a threat.

Farce of the Simulation

I don't know, I guess Taylor just wasn't meant to have a touchdown despite an amazing game.

Projections of Future Opponents

Ohio 20 - Akron 8

Northern Illinois 29 - Central Michigan 9

Miami (OH) 8 - Kent State 20

The simulation entailed above may or may not agree with the writer's prediction of the game outcome. It is only a simple analysis based on computed data. This stuff could be incredibly useless.