I was going to pretend that last week's offensive struggles didn't happen, but sadly I can't. This is because this week's simulation showed our offensive weakness again against Nevada. After doing some scouting I have come to the conclusion that this can easily be an L in the record books. But, this team has some distinct weaknesses that our defense might have some fun with. What scares me the most is that they did a decent job against #14 Texas A&M last week and they also managed 20 points against #16 Arizona. I think we have better chances at being 2-2 after this game than 3-1. Winning this game would be huge though as I would say that we are definitely heading to a bowl game.

Anyway, here's the general simulation results:

Well guys, we're the underdog. Let me put an emphasis on the word underdog. It was really hard to figure out the keys to winning this game considering we only won 13 of these games. Note that we blew out Nevada only once and since it only happened once I'm going to attribute that to error. This pretty much means that if we win, it's going to be a close dogfight (no, we will not be fighting dogs to determine the winner)*. Let's just say that it was pretty brutal to watch some of these simulations.

Player Stat Highlights

1. The typical Nevada game

Alright, Nevada's typical game against us is right here. It's kind of scary to see that this is the typical game but there is a number that is intriguing. Nevada's QB usually completed less than 50 percent of his passes with more than 200 yards. This makes me think he either throws a lot of long range bombs or he's just really inaccurate against our defense. I think it's probably a combination of both. Either way, this is something for our defense to capitalize on.

2. Richardson-Henderson Combo

Not much to take from this except that Stewart likes to spread out his passes. Watch out for Richardson (who for some reason is on here twice) as he and Henderson are his favorite targets.

3. Joe, you're killing me. You really are.

Licata continues to struggle, the stat you see for Taylor doesn't mean much (he actually got around 80 yards per game). We won't win this game unless if Joe is more productive this time around. I just don't see it happening otherwise.

Keys For UB to Win the Game

1. Joe Licata MUST have a productive day

I'm going to attribute most of the losses in this simulation to him. It's harsh to say that but it was pretty indicative as most of those games he threw either one touchdown or none at all. Nevada is a much better team than FAU and if Joe doesn't show up than we're toast(No offense to toast). I know we have a great defense but we can't rely on them to bail us out.

2. Stop the Wolf Pack at the 35 yard line as much as possible

You know how we have a freshman kicker? Well, Brent Zuzo (Nevada's Kicker) is a great, more experienced kicker. The Junior is already off to an amazing start this season and he's not going to let up. He never missed a kick during this simulation. Nevada will probably be ok with just kicking the ball if it's 4th&1 and they're deep down the field. This one is one of the bigger defensive keys.

3. THROW TO WILLOUGHBY, GOSH DARN IT

There were so many simulations where there were a total of only 1-2 passes thrown to the experienced WR. I'm just going to leave a question with an obvious answer for this one: "How are you going to get touchdowns if you never throw to your best receiver?"

4. Can we get some actual offensive balance?

This was great for Penn State and Albany. Last game was terrible. I saw multiple sets of downs where it seemed like we were only going to pass (Not to mention the one with shotgun and no RB's). I really hope the offense regroups here.

5. Tyler Stewart may very well be inaccurate in this game.

The defense should pay attention to this: most of the simulations had Tyler Stewart throwing at 50% or less. They still won a ton of these games though because they were making long range bombs. I expect a pick from one of the corner backs and they better watch out for Henderson and Richardson. Almost 70% of the passes Nevada threw went to one of the wide outs.

Farce of the Simulation

You tell me what's wrong with this picture. Hint: The chart only shows receivers who had an attempted pass thrown to them.

Notable Projections of Future Opponents

Central Michigan 19 - Michigan St. 10

Bowling Green 29 - Purdue 17

Ohio 16 - Minnesota 11

Miami (OH) 16 - Western Kentucky 33

Marshall 7 - Kent State 9

UMass 10 - Notre Dame 32

Northern Illinois 6 - Boston College 20

The simulation entailed above may or may not agree with the writer's prediction of the game outcome. It is only a simple analysis based on computed data. This stuff could be incredibly useless.

*We would lose in a dogfight considering they have a wolf pack