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When evaluating Quarterbacks I looked for three key attributes:
1) Did the QB make the most of every play?
2) Did the QB avoid negative plays?
3) Did the QB score points?
I used those three questions to evaluate MAC QBs, selected College QBs and for fun this year's NFL QBs.
MAC QBs
I was quite irritated with the MAC's choice for best QBs, but it's media voted and they are idiots, no matter what happens, they'll look at the box score and applaud whoever is on top. So of course they voted Frohnapfel, Terrell, and Hendrix.
@raleigh80 So is it averages or total? The UMass & Miami QBs were rewarded for attempting 100 more passes than Joe Licata.
— Bull Run (@UBBullRun) December 3, 2014
I was furious a month ago and I am still. If MAC Postseason awards are about who got the most yards by any means necessary, than Anthone Taylor is a first team All-MAC back. If MAC Postseason awards are about who did it most efficiently, than Joe Licata is a second-team All-MAC Quarterback.
Rk |
Player |
Yr |
Team |
Efficiency |
Positive Plays |
Scoring Plays |
1 |
Drew Hare |
SO |
NIU |
5 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
Logan Woodside |
SO |
TOL |
4 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
Zach Terrell |
SO |
WMU |
1 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
Joe Licata |
JR |
BUFF |
3 |
12 |
1 |
5 |
Ozzie Mann |
SO |
BALL |
9 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
Blake Fohnapfel |
SR |
UMASS |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
Cooper Rush |
SO |
CMU |
2 |
14 |
4 |
8 |
Jack Milas |
FR |
BALL |
11 |
2 |
9 |
9 |
James Knape |
SO |
BGSU |
7 |
7 |
13 |
9 |
Derrius Vick |
JR |
OHIO |
7 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
Andrew Hendrix |
SR |
MIA |
12 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
Colin Reardon |
SO |
KENT |
10 |
8 |
12 |
13 |
Kyle Pohl |
JR |
AKR |
15 |
4 |
14 |
14 |
Reggie Bell |
FR |
EMU |
13 |
14 |
11 |
15 |
JD Sprague |
SO |
OHIO |
14 |
10 |
15 |
I have Drew Hare of NIU and Logan Woodside of Toledo as top QBs of the MAC, followed by WMU's Zach Terrell and Joe Licata. If forced to vote for three, I would vote Hare - Terrell - Licata. Hare the best at avoiding negative plays, Terrell the most efficient, and Licata the most deadly. Woodside was the only very efficient and very deadly QB that also avoided negative plays. Everyone's favorite Fohnapfel was mediocre in all three areas, he just threw the ball a lot more than everyone else.
Efficiency
QB Efficiency |
||||||
Rk |
Player |
Yr |
Team |
Dropback Percentage* |
Yards/ Dropback* |
Yards/ Touch* |
1 |
Zach Terrell |
SO |
WMU |
64.1% |
8.51 |
8.31 |
2 |
Cooper Rush |
SO |
CMU |
59.3% |
7.22 |
7.24 |
3 |
Joe Licata |
JR |
BUFF |
62.2% |
7.12 |
6.97 |
4 |
Logan Woodside |
SO |
TOL |
59.2% |
7.33 |
6.88 |
5 |
Drew Hare |
SO |
NIU |
57.4% |
6.65 |
6.64 |
6 |
Blake Fohnapfel |
SR |
UMASS |
52.5% |
6.94 |
6.82 |
7 |
Derrius Vick |
JR |
OHIO |
55.0% |
6.33 |
6.39 |
7 |
James Knape |
SO |
BGSU |
55.7% |
6.05 |
6.05 |
9 |
Ozzie Mann |
SO |
BALL |
56.6% |
6.01 |
5.61 |
10 |
Colin Reardon |
SO |
KENT |
55.5% |
5.80 |
5.69 |
11 |
Jack Milas |
FR |
BALL |
53.7% |
5.92 |
5.63 |
12 |
Andrew Hendrix |
SR |
MIA |
44.3% |
5.97 |
5.86 |
13 |
Reggie Bell |
FR |
EMU |
51.0% |
5.53 |
5.86 |
14 |
JD Sprague |
SO |
OHIO |
46.0% |
5.35 |
5.62 |
15 |
Kyle Pohl |
JR |
AKR |
51.9% |
5.14 |
5.14 |
Zach Terrell was the most efficient QB in the MAC followed by Cooper Rush and Licata. 62% of Licata's dropbacks led to a completed pass, and on average, UB gained 7 yards for every pass called. Licata's yards per touch fell, as he is not a running threat, anytime Licata scrambled he was less effective than normal.
Positive Plays
QB Positive Plays |
|||||
Rk |
Player |
Yr |
Team |
Dropback/ Int |
Dropback/ Sack |
1 |
Drew Hare |
SO |
NIU |
169.00 |
28.17 |
2 |
Jack Milas |
FR |
BALL |
42.80 |
42.80 |
2 |
Ozzie Mann |
SO |
BALL |
102.50 |
25.63 |
4 |
Kyle Pohl |
JR |
AKR |
50.13 |
22.28 |
5 |
Logan Woodside |
SO |
TOL |
39.57 |
34.63 |
6 |
Blake Fohnapfel |
SR |
UMASS |
45.90 |
20.86 |
7 |
James Knape |
SO |
BGSU |
41.92 |
25.15 |
8 |
Colin Reardon |
SO |
KENT |
25.69 |
37.36 |
8 |
Andrew Hendrix |
SR |
MIA |
55.67 |
11.65 |
10 |
JD Sprague |
SO |
OHIO |
42.60 |
19.36 |
11 |
Derrius Vick |
JR |
OHIO |
42.75 |
15.55 |
12 |
Joe Licata |
JR |
BUFF |
32.73 |
24.00 |
13 |
Zach Terrell |
SO |
WMU |
39.00 |
17.73 |
14 |
Cooper Rush |
SO |
CMU |
31.54 |
14.64 |
14 |
Reggie Bell |
FR |
EMU |
34.33 |
9.36 |
On average, Drew Hare dropped back to pass an amazing 169 times between interceptions. Meanwhile only Colin Reardon and Cooper Rush threw INTS more often than Joe Licata in 2014. Ball State's freshman Jack Milas was the least sacked QB on average in the MAC followed by Colin Reardon, who apparently avoided sacks by throwing balls up for grabs.
QB Scoring Plays
QB Scoring Plays |
|||||
Rk |
Player |
Yr |
Team |
Dropback/ Passing TD |
Touch / TD |
1 |
Joe Licata |
JR |
BUFF |
12.41 |
12.23 |
2 |
Logan Woodside |
SO |
TOL |
14.58 |
14.36 |
2 |
Zach Terrell |
SO |
WMU |
15.00 |
15.38 |
4 |
Cooper Rush |
SO |
CMU |
15.19 |
15.85 |
5 |
Drew Hare |
SO |
NIU |
18.78 |
18.65 |
6 |
Blake Fohnapfel |
SR |
UMASS |
19.96 |
20.78 |
7 |
Andrew Hendrix |
SR |
MIA |
21.78 |
21.21 |
7 |
Ozzie Mann |
SO |
BALL |
20.50 |
22.80 |
9 |
Jack Milas |
FR |
BALL |
23.78 |
21.45 |
9 |
Derrius Vick |
JR |
OHIO |
21.38 |
26.89 |
11 |
Reggie Bell |
FR |
EMU |
22.89 |
24.38 |
12 |
Colin Reardon |
SO |
KENT |
29.36 |
28.69 |
13 |
James Knape |
SO |
BGSU |
33.53 |
32.29 |
14 |
Kyle Pohl |
JR |
AKR |
44.56 |
42.90 |
15 |
JD Sprague |
SO |
OHIO |
71.00 |
44.50 |
Licata was the deadliest QB in the MAC, throwing a TD every 12 drop backs.
The only thing that prevented Licata from being the best QB in the MAC last year was the turnovers, as a senior with a new coach I expect Licata to be the best of a deep QB Conference in 2015.
Selected NCAA QBs
I selected some national and regional QBs to see where Licata stacked up. As this is already getting wordy, no explanation, just a list.
34 - Long - Syracuse
33 - Hackenberg - Penn State
32 - Walker - Temple
31 - Pohl - Akron
30 - Gardner - Michigan
29 - Whitmer - UConn
28 - Sprague - Ohio
27 - Bell - EMU
26 - Reardon - Kent
T24 - Murphy - BC
T24 - Knape - BGSU
23 - Milas - Ball State
22 - Hunt - Syracuse
21 - Hendrix - Miami (OH)
20 - Vick - Ohio
19 - Mann - Ball State
18 - Trickett - West Virginia
17 - Fohnapfel - UMass
16 - Voytik - Pittsburgh
15 - Hare - NIU
14 - Golson - Notre Dame
13 - Rush - Central Michigan
12 - Licata - Buffalo
11 - Nova - Rutgers
10 - Winston - Florida State
9 - Woodside - Toldeo
8 - Boykin - TCU
7 - Kessler - USC
6 - Kiel - Cincinnati
5 - Barrett - Ohio State
T3 - Rakeem Cato - Marshall
T3 - Terrell - Western Michigan
2 - Cook - Michigan State
and by a landslide
1 - Mariota - Oregon
NFL QB Ranking
As a not so silent protest to that "stick to UB Sports" we got in the comments earlier in the week.
56 - Christian Ponder
55 - Johnny Manziel - Yea he's not good.
54 - Chase Daniel
53 - Connor Shaw
52 - Michael Vick - Vick played like Alex Moran in the first season of Blue Mountain State.
51 - Blake Bortles
50 - Ryan LIndley
49 - Matt Cassel
48 - Josh McCown
47 - Jake Locker
46 - Case Keenum
45 - Ryan Mallett
44 - Chad Henne
43 - Jimmy Garoppolo
42 - Jimmy Clausen
41 - Geno Smith
40 - Derek Carr
39 - Austin Davis
38 - Robert Griffin III - Weirdest QB year ever. Completed 69% of passes, but only 60% of dropbacks...which means he took a lot of sacks. He was 7th in yards per attempted throw, but sacked once every 7.5 dropbacks. RG3 was only responsible for 5 TDs, touching the ball on average 57 times between scores. He needs a change of scenery.
37 - Cam Newton
36 - EJ Manuel
35 - Colin Kaepernick
34 - Teddy Bridgewater - These stats got racist.
33 - Shaun Hill
32 - Kyle Orton - Bills starter signed after training camp, is 32nd best QB in NFL. Leads team to triumphant 9-7 record and retires on a blaze of glory. Sounds about right.
31 - Mike Glennon
30 - Zach Metenberger
29 - Brian Hoyer
28 - Jay Cutler - Don't care, still want him.
27 - Charlie Whitehurst
26 - Nick Foles
25 - Drew Stanton
24 - Matt Stafford
23 - Andy Dalton
22 - Alex Smith
21 - Ryan Tannehill
20 - Colt McCoy
19 - Matt Hasselbeck
18 - Mark Sanchez
17 - Brandon Weeden
16 - Philip Rivers
15 - Kirk Cousins
14 - Eli Manning
13 - Russell Wilson
12 - Joe Flacco
11 - Matt Ryan
10 - Andrew Luck - 37th in Touches per Turnover, giving the ball away every 32.14 touches. Russell Wilson gave the ball away once every 87.43 touches, Rodgers once every 84.43, Brady once every 53.25 touches and Flacco once every 51.08 touches. Those four have rings, Andrew won't get one until he learns to take care of the ball.
9 - Drew Brees
8 - Tom Brady - As always, if the Pats win again, I quit football forever.
7 - Carson Palmer - Carson can't catch a break.
6 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Should've just kept Fitzy. Another reminder to fire Russ Brandon.
5 - Derek Anderson* - Started two games, both against Tampa
4 - Peyton Manning - Torn between wanting him to retire so I don't have to hear from Broncos fans again, and wanting him to stay so I don't have to hear from San Diego fans. #WestCoastFanProblems
3 - Ben Roethlisberger - Large Ben tied for the NFL passing title, and I think he spent the entire season as a free agent in my fantasy league. I think he had the weirdest best season for a QB in league history. Speaking of, the Steelers are 11-5 division champs with losses to Cleveland, Tampa, the Jets, and New Orleans.
2 - Tony Romo - I'm ashamed to say I'm rooting for the Cowboys, it's the first time in my life, but I have irrational love for big strong wide receivers. I loved Terrell Owens until he became a Bill, my favorite UB receiver was Ernest Jackson, and my favorite player in the game right now is Dez Bryant, especially after audio of "Dez being sideline cancer" showed that nope, Dez is just an aggressive motivational speaker and cheerleader.
I really hope Dallas cheap out and somehow Dez finds his way to Buffalo, Dez an Sammy goodnight world, even EJ couldn't mess that up, probably.
1 - Aaron Rodgers - I hate Aaron Rodgers but he was great this year, I hope he loses in the playoffs.
*Dropback completion percentage - Completions/Dropbacks. Used instead of completions/attempts, penalizing QBs who take sacks instead of risking an incompletion.
Yards per dropback - (Passing yards - Sack yard) / (Attempts + Sacks)
Yards per touch - (Passing Yards + Rushing yards) / (Dropbacks + Run Attempts)