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UB Bracketology Update

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I don’t much care about Brackets in January. The “at-large” bubble bias against Mid Majors is so strong that it’s not until regualr season play is over that I even begin to consider possible seeding.

But, I got this in the mail from a friend of the site and I found it interesting that UB is already looking like an 11 seed.

Anything under 13 is good for a Mid Major, that’s where the break begins.

In the last 33 NCAA Tournaments here are the first round seed records.

  • #1 Seed vs #16 Seed - 132-0 - 100% Winning Percentage #1 Seed
  • #2 Seed vs #15 Seed - 124-8 - 93.94% Winning Percentage #2 Seed
  • #3 Seed vs #14 Seed - 111-21 - 84.09% Winning Percentage #3 Seed
  • #4 Seed vs #13 Seed - 106-26 - 80.30% Winning Percentage #4 Seed
  • #5 Seed vs #12 Seed - 85-47 - 64.39% Winning Percentage #5 Seed
  • #6 Seed vs #11 Seed - 83-49 - 62.88% Winning Percentage #6 Seed
  • #7 Seed vs #10 Seed - 81-51 - 61.37% Winning Percentage #7 Seed
  • #8 Seed vs #9 Seed - 68-64 - 51.52% Winning Percentage #8 Seed

Teams seeded #4 win 80% of the time, there is a big drop then with #5 seed who win less than 2/3rds of the time. If UB wins out them getting to 10 or even a 9 is not unthinkable.

The 9/8 games are statistically pretty close to even money.

Of course for any of this to matter UB needs to stay hot in conference play and win the MAC title.