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CIT: What we know so far what we'll learn tonight.

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Ohio shocked Marshall who was generally considered one of, if not the, best team in the field. It was very nice to see The Bobcats help shut Conference USA out for the night (CUSA is so far 0-4 in postseason play). But that was not the only upset. Jacksonville upended East Carolina, Rider got clobbered by Northern Iowa, and Portland wsa dumped by Hawaii.

So far five of the top 12 teams (as measured by RPI) are gone. Only two of the top half, East Tennessee and Air Force, have secured a spot in the next round, Tonight Valpo plays Iona so at lesat one more will be dumped. At most five of the top 12 RPI's will be gone.

The CIT has announced the first round byes. Ohio, East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa, and the winner of tonight's game between Valpo and Iona. This leaves the following teams as round two competitors. 

Team RPI SOS   Team RPI SOS
Air Force 108 64        
San Francisco 120 95 or Idaho 137 174
Oral Roberts 129 168 or SMU 206 191
Santa Clara 158 167        
Hawaii 159 192        
Buffalo 167 229        
WMU 173 280 or Tenn Tech 189 277
Jacksonville 331 305      

 

It's likely that Air Force, the winner of San Francisco vs. Idaho, and Oral Roberts (if they win) will get a week one bye. Santa Clara, Hawaii, Western Michigan, and Buffalo are all tossups any one of them can claim a bye depending on the field.

The good news is that geographically Buffalo is in a good spot to host a second round game. My understanding is that teams do not pay to host after the first round. If I am wrong and teams can by a second round game then Buffalo will be on the road.

While Strait up our RPI will be no higher than 5 (if SMU beats Oral Roberts) the CIT has, in previous years, set up their initial seeds based as much on geography as it does on RPI. There will be just three teams east of the Mississippi playing in round two (Buffalo, Jacksonville, and the Winner of WMU / Tennessee Tech).

So where would we go or who would we host? Shudder... Western Michigan looks realistic. It's my hope that the CIT would avoid pairing up conference foes so early in bracket but five of the eight teams playing in round two are either very far west or very far south. That leaves Buffalo, Jacksonville, and either Tennessee Tech or Western Michigan.

Scenario 1, The CIT trys to keep games Regional:

In the west: Some combination of Hawaii, Santa Clara, San Fransisco / Idaho, and Air Force.

In the South: Jacksonville at Oral Roberts / SMU

In the North(ish): Buffalo and Tennessee Tech / WMU. (toss up as to who hosts).

Scenario 2, The CIT trys to pair up 1 v 8, 2 v 7 but also considers geography

Air Force Hosts Hawaii (RPI 1 versus RPI 5)

San Fransisco or Idaho Hosts Santa Clart (RPI 2 versus RPI 4)

Oral Roberts host Jacksonville (RPI 3 v RPI 8)  or, if SMU wins, Buffalo Hosts Jacksonville (RPI: 5 v RPI 8)

If Oral Roberts Wins Buffalo and WMU or Tennessee Tech. (toss up as to who hosts).

Scenario 3, The CIT trys to pair up 1 v 8, 2 v 7, also considers geography, but mercifully does not put tow MAC teams together.

Air Force Hosts Hawaii (RPI 1 versus RPI 5)

San Fransisco or Idaho Hosts Santa Clart (RPI 2 versus RPI 4)

If SMU Wins

  1. Buffalo hosts Jacksonville and WMU/Tennessee Tech host SMU

If Oral Roberts Wins

  1. Buffalo hosts Tennessee Tech if they beat WMU and Oral Roberts Host Jacksonville
  2. Buffalo or WMU hosts Jacksonville if WMU wins and Oral Roberts Host WMU or Buffalo