It's round two of Mid-American Conferencetion this week, which means it's time to tackle another simulation against another MAC bottom feeder. Unfortunately, Kent State isn't as bad as Miami (Not FL) and could pose a large challenge to Buffalo's offense. Besides some sparks from their defense, it isn't something that should be widely concerned about. If UB can wrap up a win this week, bowl eligibility is almost locked up because of the plethora of bowls this year.
So, let's cut to the chase and show the general sim results:
A lot of these games were very strong on the defensive side. Anyway, Things are a little different this week. Someone couldn't keep their sticky fingers off of the submit button to the program and went way over 100 simulations while I was looking at a specific game that simulated. As a result, I got 150 simulations for you this week (Happy Early Kwanza or something). As you can see, we're the favorites but nearly 1/4 of the games were decided by 5 points or less. A lot of the time this happened when both opponents couldn't get past the twenty point mark. The chances of Kent blowing us out are slim (Thank you ruler of the universe).
Player Stat Highlights
1. Rushing Inefficiency
This was a good case of the usual. I saw a lot of games where Taylor and Johnson combined for 60 or less yards. What the sim showed me this week is that this double running back system isn't working. When either of the two capable RB's have a larger amount of attempts, the rushing numbers are a lot better for UB. How much better? There were multiple 150+ yard rushing days compared to a balanced double running back total of 60-70ish yards. I don't think the double running back system is bad. It allows us to have some very fresh players. Unfortunately, it does taking out of gaining experience on the current defense you're facing and learning how to break it.
2. Return of Cable Licata
Licata is going to struggle. Throughout this season I thought he would become more comfortable with this new offensive system but it's looking bleak despite some glimmers of hope. Kent's defense seemed to overwhelm him as it was tough for him to get over 250 yards, let alone 200. One or two interceptions were also common.
3. Kent State's Premier Attack
This sim showed often that Kent's offense is going to try hard to get the running game going. I saw 100 yard games and I saw 200 yard games. Their passing attack is going to be weaker and the only way to free it up will be a great rushing offense.
Keys For a SUNY Bulls Win
1. Give one of the backs more carries
Like it was said above, things went a lot better when one of the RB's got more carries.
2. The offense needs to shut down the defense
Even though Kent's defense kent read, they aren't to be messed with. They did hold Minnesota to 10 points. Unfortunately for them, they were only able to grab seven. The defense can easily be broken though considering they lost 52-3 to Illinois, 48-0 to Bowling Green, and 38-7 to Toledo.
3. No 4th Quarter 3-and-outs please....
Do I need to explain why this was bad, especially after last week?
Farce of the Simulation
Projections of Future Opponents
I remember when this list was so big*
Akron 8 - UMass 42
*Due to this post being a little late this week there's only one game here, #24 Toledo was predicted to win 28-26 over NIU. They lost by the way.