With two options for most games Saturday - separate UB from the pack or establish a clear top half of the conference - most of the MAC Men's Basketball games broke to the former. The Bulls are in sole possession of the #2 seed with a one-game-plus-tiebreaker edge on #3, 4, and 5:
|1-0 v Kent, Ball
|1-1 v CMU, Ball
|0-1 v Kent, CMU
|3-1 v Toledo, Ohio
|2-1 v NIU, Toledo
|0-3 v Ohio, NIU
|1-0 vs EMU
|0-1 vs EMU
Remember that UB now has an unbreakable tiebreaker advantage over CMU, Ball State, and NIU, and is up 1-0 with home games remaining against Kent State and Toledo. I haven't done all the math, but if the Bulls simply win out at home - five of their final eight games - they'll almost certainly grab the #2 seed.
In the realm of things UB can control, this week is the critical stretch: home games against Toledo and Ohio can ice the tiebreaker and build a three-game advantage over the Rockets and stake an important tiebreaker claim against the Bobcats, who have an easy schedule (EMU, Miami, Bowling Green) in between their two games against the Bulls.
In the realm of things UB can't control, tomorrow's games:
Akron at Bowling Green: Bowling Green. It's a little early to count teams out, but the Falcons still have to face Akron twice, Buffalo twice, and Kent State again. They're likely not challenging for a bye* from 4-6, so root for them heartily over the Zips. This and a UB win keeps the Bulls in second, but only by a tiebreaker.
Ohio at Ball State: Ball State. Ohio still has two games left against UB and otherwise a manageable schedule that could help them make up a ton of ground. They've got some serious individual talent but haven't put it together in Saul Ball. UB's got the tiebreaker locked up on Ball State, so they're a little less dangerous right now even with a better record.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan: Eastern Michigan. Go nuts, Eagles. It'd take something very big and distressing over the last eight for them to factor into UB's scenarios. Wouldn't mind being another game clear of the Chips.
Miami at Western Michigan: Miami. We don't really care about this one between bottom of the table teams, but let's say Miami just because.
Northern Illinois at Kent State: Northern Illinois. UB's got the tiebreaker set on the Huskies, and not yet on the Flashes, so go for the visitors here. A tighter pack favors UB should they fall back into it, since they've got tiebreakers on so many mid-conference teams.