clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Buffalo's road to the College Football Playoff - Week 3

The Road to the College Football Playoff looks at UB's national profile, and how far they need to go to gain the Group of 5 spot into a top bowl game, and how far they need to climb to gain an unprecidented spot in the college football playoff:

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

I think the polls could have an easier time placing the Chicago Bulls and the Minnesota T-Wolves in a football game than the Buffalo Bulls and the Nevada Wolfpack. Buffalo's inconsistent play and the questionable ability of Penn State makes UB impossible to judge. Nevada's impossible task of Arizona and Texas A&M make it impossible to judge how good the runners from Reno really are. After Saturday, we'll find out which team is for real.

UB's Rank: 84 (+11)

Billingsley + MOV 97 (+3) CBS Sports 83 (+21) ESPN FPI 99 (+9)
Massey 83 (+18)
USA Today Myerberg 90 (+1) Sagarin 79 (+15)
Football Study Hall 110 Colley 71 Conrad Poll 51 (-20)

UB's College Football Playoff Magic Number:

80

UB would need to pass 80 teams to enter the college football playoff.

UB's Group of 5 Magic Number:

22 (+9)

UB is 23rd of 61 group of 5 teams, thus UB would have to leap 22 teams to earn the G5 auto-bid to a top 6 bowl game.

Conrad Poll:

The Conrad Poll measures how consistent a team is over the season, it still probably won't really take shape until week 5. UB finished 51st in the Conrad Poll this week.

Conrad Poll Top 25

RK Team Conf
1 Navy American
2 Ohio MAC
3 NC State ACC
4 West Virginia Big 12
5 Texas Tech Big 12
6 Baylor Big 12
7 Oklahoma st Big 12
8 BYU Independent
9 LSU SEC
10 Northwestern Big Ten
11 Georgia SEC
12 Arizona Pac-12
13 Florida St ACC
14 Utah Pac-12
15 Cal Pac-12
16 Ole Miss SEC
17 Mich St Big Ten
18 TCU Big 12
19 Clemson ACC
20 Temple American
21 Ohio st Big Ten
22 Indiana Big Ten
23 Missouri SEC
24 Texas A&M SEC
25 Florida SEC


Aggregate Top 10

#1: Ohio State - Big 10

#2: Ole Miss - SEC

#3: Georgia - SEC

#4: LSU - SEC

#5: Mich St - Big 10

#6: Baylor - Big 12

#7: TCU - Big 12

#8: Notre Dame

#9: Florida St - ACC

#10: Texas A&M 0 SEC

The G5 Top 15:

#1: Boise State - Mountain West - #36

#2: Temple - American Athletic - #38

#3: Memphis - American Athletic - #39

#4: Toledo - Mid American - #42

#5: Navy - American Athletic - #47

#6: Houston - American Athletic - #50

#7: Ohio - Mid American - #53

#8: Western Kentucky - Conference USA - #55

#9: Northern Illinois - Mid American - #59

#10: Air Force - Mountain West - #62

#11: Louisiana Tech - Conference USA - #64

#12: Cincinnati - American Athletic - #66

#13: Marshall - Conference USA - #68

#14: Georgia Southern - Sun Belt - #69

#15: Middle Tennessee - Conference USA - #72

New to the Poll: Ohio, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee

Dropped Out: San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State

The Bottom 10

#119: Kent State - Mid American

#120: UTSA - Conference USA

#121: Charlotte - Conference USA

#122: UTEP - Conference USA

#123: Georgia State - Sun Belt

#124: Wyoming - Mountain West

#125: Miami (OH) - Mid American

#126: UNLV - Mountain West

#127: Idaho - Sun Belt

#128: New Mexico State - Sun Belt

Dropped Into the Bottom: UTSA, Charlotte, UTEP, Miami (OH)

Started from the bottom now they out: EMU, Army, Troy, SMU

UB's Schedule:

Average MAC Rank: 90 (+8)
Average FBS Opponent Rank: 91 (+7)
Average Opponent Faced: 78
Average Opponent Yet to be Played: 94 (+4)
Average Win Rank: 110
Average Loss Rank: 45
Next Opponent: Nevada #98

The Road to Bowl Eligibility: 4 Wins needed. 7 winnable games remaining (teams ranked below or within 20 of UB)
UB Ranked better: (Albany, FAU, Nevada, CMU, Miami, Kent, Akron, UMass)
UB Ranked better record: 2-0
UB Ranked below but close: (BGSU)
UB Ranked below but close record: 0-0
UB Ranked below not close (Penn State, NIU, Ohio)
UB Ranked below not close record: 0-1

Schedule Projection: 9-3 (6-2)

Albany W 1-0
@ Penn St L 1-1
@ FAU W 2-1
Nevada W 3-1
BGSU W 4-1 (1-0)
@ CMU W 5-1 (2-0)
Ohio L 5-2 (2-1)
@ Miami W 6-2 (3-1)
@ Kent St W 7-2 (4-1)
NIU L 7-3 (4-2)
@ Akron W 8-3 (5-2)
UMass W 9-3 (6-2)

MAC Standings:

MAC Rank Division Rank Team National Rank
#1 West #1 Toledo #42 (+25)
#2 (+2) East  #1 Ohio #53 (+32)
#3 (-1) West #2 N. Illinois #59 (+10)
#4 (+1) East #2 BGSU #73 (+21)
#5 (+1) East #3 Buffalo #84 (+11)
#6 (-3) West #3 Western Mich #90 (-11)
#7 West #4 Ball St #91 (+7)
#8 West #5 Central Mich #96 (+7)
#9 East #4 Akron #109
#10 (+1) East #5 (+1) UMass #114 (+1)
#11 (+1) West #6 Eastern Mich #117 (+7)
#12 (+1) East #6 (+1) Kent St #119 (+6)
#13 (-3) East #7 (-2) Miami #125 (-13)

UB's path to Detroit:

No MAC East matchups again this week means UB controls their own destiny in the MAC (if they win all their MAC games)