MAC Women's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

Finally, after a few rounds of games not going right, UB got the big breaks from around the conference it needed to improve its chances of grabbing a bye in the MAC tournament. Ohio and Ball State have locked in the #1 and #2 seeds, but UB can still climb as high as #3 or fall to #7. The Bulls are indeed guaranteed a home game in the first round should they not get a bye.

The good news is UB comes as close as possible to controlling their own destiny, and the one scenario in which they don't requires a four-team parlay amongst the other games. It could happen, but it's unlikely.

First, here's where things stand now:

What we're interested in is the stretch from Akron to EMU. None of them can fall below 7, and none save maybe the Zips can rise above 3. Even better, unlike the men's side, none of them play each other. This makes the number of possible outcomes larger, but it also makes adding everything up easier.

But first, how did we come to that order among the 10-7 teams right now?

I've got things a little more streamlined than in the men's post. What you see in the second column is each team's combined record against the other three. The fourth column is the next tiebreaker between EMU and WMU. Neither has the advantage in head to head results, so it goes to record against the #1 seed, where EMU has the advantage.

Now, the fun. Here's where everyone involved stands against each other. Simple

Of note: there are so few matchups that aren't 1-1 that they become uber-valuable. EMU 1-0 over Akron while UB is 1-0 over EMU is great for the Bulls is Akron somehow loses to BG. The 2-0 records involving Toledo are equally important.

Since all five of these teams are playing other teams, there are more possible combinations of results, but it's easier to sift through. Additionally, UB absolutely needs a win to get a bye - if everyone they're tied with loses, they'd still be sitting #5 as they are now. So I omitted the 16 possibilities involving a UB loss. (Update: apparently I didn't cut out 8 of them. Oh well. Ask in the comments if you've got a question.) Here's what it looks like.

It might not be obvious if you didn't work through them all, but four things are coming up huge for the Bulls: Their win over  EMU, a 1-0 record in a table full of 1-1 head to head matchups, Toledo's 2-0 record over WMU and EMU's 1-0 against Akron (same story), and their win over Ball State when they end up in a 'best win' tiebreaker.

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So how does UB get a bye?

This is remarkably simple considering where we were six hours ago:

• Win and any ONE of Toledo, WMU, or Akron lose.

That was simple

Yep.

How does UB get the #3 seed?

• Win, EMU win, and Akron loss
• Win, all of EMU, Toledo, WMU, Akron lose