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Buffalo Bulls Women's Basketball: Fun with rate stats

UB Athletics

Our run through the stats page continues with a look at the rate stats for the women's team. Previously, we used rate stats to further investigate the state of the men's team rotation as Coach Hurley sticks to a strict eight-man swing, when everyone is healthy.

Without too much explanation, the numbers and then some things that stick out to me:

I did not include Mariah Suchan, who has appeared in just two games. I also did not include turnovers/40, since it's pretty uniformly bad there, with the exception of Kristen Sharkey (well better than the rest), and Karin Moss and Ayana Bradley (well worse).

Also note that I'm writing this before Wednesday night's game against Central Michigan.

g mins/g pts/40 reb/40 pf/40 a/40 stl/40
Kristen Sharkey 12 31.9 15.6 9.2 3.6 1.1 2.6
Christa Baccas 8 29.9 11.5 10.4 4.2 2.3 2.2
Alexus Malone 12 29.2 16.6 12.0 4.5 3.0 2.5
Mackenzie Loesing 12 25.9 18.5 5.9 5.4 1.9 2.7
Rachael Gregory 12 25.0 13.2 6.7 2.9 1.3 1.5
Camera Miley 11 19.1 13.5 5.7 4.4 4.2 2.3
Karin Moss 11 17.9 6.1 3.5 5.9 5.1 4.1
Joanna Smith 12 11.8 11.8 7.6 3.4 2.5 2.5
Liisa Ups 12 9.4 5.3 2.8 3.9 1.1 1.8
Katherine Ups 11 8.3 7.0 5.3 2.6 2.2 1.3
Ayana Bradley 8 7.4 6.1 12.2 8.8 1.4 0.7

Here's what I see:

  • Can't start with anything but the fouls, which we've already identified as a consistent issue for the team. The steal numbers are indeed high as a result, but the team also averages 20 turnovers a night. While turnovers aren't strongly correlated to steals or fouls, I feel like high turnover numbers and high foul numbers are a double gut punch not worth the increased steals.
  • One place where the eye test from the first 12 games bears out is in Camera Miley, who seems much improved this year. Accepting that everyone's fouls are high, the only egregious number in her statline is more turnovers than the rest, but she's also got some of the best shooting numbers on the team.
  • When it comes to lineup decisions, I can't argue with the three forwards topping the list, though if Sharkey could play all 40 that would be nice. If Baccas' points are a little low for you're liking, they're low for Coach Jack's as well, and she's on school-record block pace on the other end. Even at less than 100%, Loesing is still putting up good numbers in an OK amount of minutes that doesn't seem to aggravate her injury. At this point she's been clearly dealing with it for seven or eight games, so I'm comfortable not hedging my bets that this is skewed by early-season play.
  • Rounding out the fifth spot of the clear first-line is Rachael Gregory, who looks pretty good, especially with the lowest foul rate of the regulars. There's no glaring negative in the stats I didn't include, either.
  • But that's where we get into trouble: the rotating guards behind the top five. Miley, Moss, and Smith have consistently jockeyed to share 45-50 minutes a night. Moss is a poster child for the high-turnover, high-foul, high-steal team, but though Miley has good numbers in this table, she does have the highest turnover rate of the three. Based on this, I'd like to see more time for Miley. Joanna Smith is stuck here: she's the best rebounder of the three and has decent secondary numbers, but she just can't get shots to fall.
  • The next tier is the Sisters Ups. I won't argue for either of them to get much more time, but I will point out that Katherine would be one of the better options in the guard rotation if she could get a shot down. Her secondary stats are very similar to Gregory's, and she's one of the best of the guards on the offensive glass.

I'm realizing now at the end of this that I probably should have just included shooting percentages in this. Anyway, what sticks out to you?