UB Versus: Week 3

Bounce Back Bulls

Since 2011, UB is 4-2 in their next home game after a loss at home, winning on average 33-25. UB hopes to make that 5-2 against Norfolk State on September 20th.

Home Sweet Home aka Licataville

Today was Buffalo's first loss at UB Stadium since October 27, 2012 and Joe Licata's first loss at UB Stadium as a starting QB (8-1).

UB is 8-2 in their last 10 games at UB Stadium. That 10 game period lasted 686 days starting 10/27/2012 vs Toledo and ending 9/12/2014 vs Baylor.

It previously took UB 1,405 days to string together 8 wins at UB Stadium, starting 11/4/2008, against Miami in the Election Game, and ending 9/8/2012 against Morgan State. UB was 8-13 during that time period.

UB  is also 12-8 in their last 20 games at UB Stadium over 1,393 days starting with the 11/20/2010 loss to EMU to today.

It previously took UB 1,464 days to win 12 UB Stadium games, starting with Turner Gill's UB debut, a win vs Temple on 8/31/2006 and ending with Jeff Quinn's UB debut, a win vs Rhode Island on 9/2/2010. UB was 12-11 during that period.

Yesterday's loss was the 76th loss at UB Stadium, the Bulls are 42-76 (.356) all time at UB Stadium.

UB was 18-53 at home pre-Gill, but 24-23 at UB Stadium since 2006.

Despite the loss,  Quinn keeps the highest win percentage at UB Stadium, and owns the most wins at UB Stadium by a coach.

Coach	W	L	%
Quinn	13	12	52%
Gill	11	11	50%
Cirbus	12	21	36%
Ward	2	9	18%
Hofher	4	23	15%

• In 22 years at UB Stadium, UB has only won their first two home games four times, in 1997, 1998, 2008 and 2013.
• UB is 11-11 in UB Stadium home openers, outscoring opponents 27-25.
• UB is 8-14 in their second home game at UB Stadium, losing by an average 20-26.

Campbell vs Archer

Touches/TD	TDs	Yards Per	Yards	Attempts	Thru 3 games	Attempts	Yards	Yards per	TDs	Touches/TD
0	0	6.5	78	12	Rushing	30	249	8.30	4	7.5
4	2	8.38	67	8	Receiving	7	69	9.86	0	0
0	0	20.4	204	10	Kick Returns	6	253	42.17	1	6
10	2	7.25	145	20	Offensive Touches	37	318	8.59	4	9.25
15	2	11.6	349	30	Total Touches	43	571	13.28	5	8.6

Campbell is only 2 yards per offensive touch behind Dri Archer, yet he has almost half the touches of 2012 Archer through three games. After a great game against Army, (11 offensive touches, 88 yards, 2 TDs) Campbell was kept off the offensive stat sheet, only returning kicks. Early in the 3rd quarter, while blocking, Campbell sustained what looked to be a neck or head injury.

In a game like the Baylor game, Campbell is the X-factor that could have broken through UB's early offensive drought. If Taylor and Johnson are the top options at running back, move Campbell back to Wide Receiver to get him the ball, because a game without Campbell touching the ball is a bad game.

Licata vs. Willy
(Through 20 Starts)

V S	Joe Licata								V S
	60%	58.73%	4500	38	14	12.2	7.1	16.58
	Win%	comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	y/com	y/att	att/td
	15%	62.16%	3603	16	23	9.79	6.1	37
	Drew Willy

Fun fact: Both Joe Licata's and Drew Willy's 20th start as UB's QB came at home against Baylor. Licata is still playing well, but he has yet to show the command and control we started to see from Drew Willy between starts 20 and 30. Can Licata throw 30 times for 300 yards and keep offensive momentum without a strong running game?

Quinn vs. Coach Record Books

WINNING PERCENTAGE, MINIMUM 15 WINS								ALL-TIME WINS
RANK	COACH	W	L	T	WIN %	GAMES		RANK	COACH	WINS
1	CLAIR	12	4	1	75.0%	17		1	DANDO	59
2	OFFENHAMER	58	37	5	61.1%	100		2	OFFENHAMER	58
3	URICH	18	12	0	60.0%	30		3	PEELE	38
4	LEE	8	7	0	53.3%	15		4	GILL	20
5	PEELE	38	34	1	52.8%	73		5	URICH	18
6	DANDO	59	64	1	48.0%	124		5	QUINN	18
7	WILSON	12	15	3	44.4%	30
8	DEMING	8	12	0	40.0%	20
8	GILL	20	30	0	40.0%	50
10	POWELL	13	22	5	37.1%	40
11	QUINN	18	34	0	34.6%	52

With back to back losses, Quinn remains 11th in win percentage, at 34.6% and stays tied with Doc Urich at the 18 win mark.

• In the 52 games before Quinn, UB was 21-31 (40.38%).
• In 52 games of the Quinn era UB is 18-34 (34.62%)
• Thus the Quinn era is currently a -5.76% decline for UB football.
• Quinn will have coached (at least) 61 games by the end of the year.
• In the previous 61 games UB was 21-40 (34.43%)
• To match or exceed the previous 61 games, Quinn's Bulls would have to finish at least 4-8.

Power (Outage) 5

UB is 1-27 since 1999 against teams now in the Power 5. UB beat now B1G member Rutgers in 2002. Since then, UB has fallen to 23 straight (now) Power 5 conference teams.

UB has four losses against now Big 12 teams, (all Baylor) with an average loss of 35 points.

UB has nine losses against now ACC teams, with an average loss of 28 points.

UB has four losses against now SEC teams, with an average loss of 26 points.

UB is 1-10 against now B1G teams, with an average loss of 24 points. (Skewed down a lot by Rutgers, but it's their fault for adding Rutgers)

Based on the numbers, I'd rather play at Alabama than play Baylor again. Especially with Lane Kiffin running the offense (trust me). Kiffin vs. Tepper would be one for the ages.

Instead of Bama, we should play more B1G, I for one welcome the Minnesota game.

Taylor vs. BO vs. Starks vs. DC21 vs. JJ Sweet

First 35 Career Carries
RB	Attempts	Yards	TDs	Yds/Att	Att/TD
Starks	35	178	1	5.09	35
Campbell	35	174	1	4.97	35
Johnson	35	162	0	4.63	n/a
BO	35	117	0	3.34	n/a
Taylor	35	105	0	3.00	n/a

Small sample size, but Starks had the best debut, while Taylor came out worst than BO did with a bare cupboard offensive line and no fullback. Johnson and Campbell put up respectable numbers, just 16 and 4 yards shy of Starks.

First 138 Carries
RB	Attempts	Yards	TDs	Yds/Att	Att/TD
Starks	138	615	6	4.46	23.00
Taylor	138	616	5	4.46	27.60
Campbell	138	601	4	4.36	34.50
BO	138	412	1	2.99	138.00

Johnson drops out as he only has 35 career carries. Campbell has 138 career runs and Taylor has 145, for the first time, Anthone Taylor is UB's most experienced running back on roster.

First 145 Carries
RB	Attempts	Yards	TDs	Yds/Att	Att/TD
Taylor 145	145	660	6	4.55	24.17
Starks 145	145	629	6	4.34	24.17
BO 145	145	441	2	3.04	72.50

Taylor is actually on pace to be one of the best backs in UB history, based solely on first 145 carries, his output exceeds Starks and BO, maybe it's time to jump on the Taylor bandwagon?

Spread Offense

Finally, the level of varied distrubution in the passing game is something we aren't used to at Bull Run. None of the 13 receivers to catch a pass this year owns the market, Willoughby leads with 21% of receptions, 23% of yards and 20% of receiving TDs.

This year UB already has:

• 7 receivers with 5 receptions, one more 5-catch receiver than the 2004 team had.
• 3 10-catch receivers, 1 fewer 10-catch receiver than UB saw during 2009 and 20XX
• 6 Receivers with a TD catch, tied for 3rd most receivers with a TD catch in a season since 2000.
• 4 Receivers with 2 TD catches, tied (with 2000, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013) for the most 2+ TD receivers at UB since 2000.
• and 3 Receivers with 100+ yards receiving, equal to the number of 100+ yard receivers during the 2003 season.

Next week, UB puts it's FCS winning streak on the line again, Jeff Quinn seeks to pass Doc Urich on the career coaching list and Joe seeks to reclaim Licataville.