With two games to go, the Women's hoops team is sitting alone in fourth place and in position for a bye past the opening gauntlet of games in the MAC Tournament. The other two main contenders for the final bye are representatives from the West Division Toledo and WMU.
#4 UB 9-7
#5 WMU 8-8
#6 Toledo 8-8
UB - Toledo: UB, 1-0 head to head record
UB - Western Michigan: WMU, 1-0 head to head record
WMU - Toledo: WMU, 2-0 head to head record
Three-way tie: WMU 3-0 record, UB 1-1 record, Toledo 0-3 record
Because UB holds the tiebreaker over Toledo, they can finish with the same record as the Rockets and still claim h]the higher spot. With a one-game advantage over UT, this means that just one win in the final two games would assure the Bulls a higher seed. A Toledo loss would also do the same.
It's not so simple against the Broncos, since WMU holds the tiebreaker over UB. Buffalo must finish with a better record than WMU to avoid falling a spot due to that tiebreaker. Fortunately UB is a game up on the Broncos right now, so they only need to match WMU's record over the final games.
Essentially UB's 'magic number' to finish ahead of Toledo is 1, and to finish ahead of Western Michigan is 2.
UB gets the #4 Seed if:
UB 1-1, WMU 1-1 or worse
UB 0-2, WMU 0-2, Toledo 1-1 or worse
UB: v Akron, v Kent
You may worry that Akron is very good, as you're right. The Zips have sewed up the #3 seed in in the tourney on the strength of a 12 game win streak, and just might be able to threaten to the power couple at the top of the standings. Fortunately Kent State is not nearly as much of a challenge.
WMU: @ CMU, v NIU
Furthermore, WMU has to go on the road to face the Central Michigan buzzsaw. The trio of Bowling Green, Central Michigan, and Akron have just one loss against the rest of the conference this season, and though Central has been pushed recently, it would be a shock to see them drop a game as the postseason approaches. A likely WMU loss would make it much harder for the Broncos to pass the Bulls.
UT: v EMU, v Ball
Two home games against beatable teams, but UT is going to need two wins and quite a bit of help at this point after missing out on chances to capitalize on Buffalo losses over the last two weeks.