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Buffalo's Road to the College Football Playoff - Week 9

Joel Auerbach

UB's College Football Playoff Magic Number:

117 (-12)

Based on my unscientific poll of UB's public perception, UB would need to leapfrog 117 teams to earn their way into the College Football Playoff.

UB's Group of 5 Magic Number:

46 (-7)

Based on my unscientific poll of UB's public perception, UB is 47th of 60 teams in the group of 5. In the College Football Playoff, the highest ranked team in the group of 5 gets an auto-bid to a top 6 bowl game.


Alec Trevelyan's Group of 5 B1G 10

#1: Marshall - Conference USA - #19

#2: East Carolina - American Athletic - #31.6

#3: Colorado State - Mountain West - #31.8

#4: Boise State - Mountain West - #39

#5: Central Florida - American Athletic - #45

#6: Utah State - Mountain West - #53

#7: Nevada - Mountain West - #54

#8: Memphis - American Athletic - #59.6

#9: Arkansas State - Sun Belt - #60

#10: Air Force - Mountain West - #64

#11: Houston - American Athletic - #67

#12: Middle Tennessee - Conference USA - #69

#13: Louisiana Tech - Conference USA - #71

#14: Georgia Southern - Sun Belt - #72

New to the Poll: Arkansas State, Air Force, MTSU, La Tech, Georgia Southern

Dropped Out: Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Kentucky, Temple

Alec Trevelyan's Group of 5 Bottom XII

#51: UConn - American Athletic - #129

#52: Appalachian State - Sun Belt - #130

#53: Kent State - Mid American - #132

#54: Miami - Mid American - #133

#55: Eastern Michigan - Mid American - #137

#56: Idaho - Sun Belt - #141

#57: Southern Methodist - American Athletic - #138.7

#58: Georgia State - Sun Belt - #139.2

#59: New Mexico State - Sun Belt - #142

#60: Troy - Sun Belt - #145

Dropped Into the Bottom: UConn, SMU

Started from the bottom now they out: New Mexico, UMass


UB's Rank

CBS Sports 105 USA Today 114 Billingsley + MOV 120
Football Outsiders F/+ 116 Massey (FBS+FCS) 146 Sagarin (FBS+FCS) 142
Colley 111 Anderson & Hester 114 Wolfe (FBS + FCS) 122


Average UB Rank: 121 (-12)


UB's Schedule:

Average MAC Rank: 105 (-1)
Average Opponent Rank: 119 (+1)
Average Opponent Faced: 128 (+5)
Average Opponent Yet to be Played: 107 (+3)


The Road to a Bowl: 3 more wins is eligible, 4 more wins for safety

Winnable games (teams ranked below or within 20 of UB):
8 (Duquesne, Army, Norfolk, Miami, EMU, Ohio, Kent, UMass)
Winnable games record: 3-2 (.600)
Winnable games remaining: 3

MAC Standings:

MAC Rank Division Rank Team National Rank
#1 West #1 N. Illinois #74
#2 West #2 Toledo #75
#3 East #1 Akron #81
#4 East #2 Bowling Green #85
#5 West #3 Western Mich #89
#6 West #4 Central Mich #95
#7 East #3 Ohio #104
#8 West #5 Ball State #113
#9 East #4 Buffalo #121
#10 East #5 UMass #124
#11 East #6 Kent #132
#12 East #7 Miami #133
#13 West #6 Eastern Mich. #137

UB's path to Detroit:

Western Michigan over Ohio

Toledo over Umass

Ball State over Akron

Buffalo over CMU

This would put UB and Akron a game back of Bowling Green.

UB's NEW YORK Rank: #2

NY Rank Team National Rank
#1 Syracuse 3-4 71
#2 NY Bulls
3-4
121
#3 Fordham
6-1
123
#4 Army 
2-5
128
#5 Albany
5-2
166
#6 Stony Brook
4-4
167
#7 Colgate
4-3
194
#8 Wagner
3-3
201
#9 Cornell
0-5
233
#10 Marist
1-6
242
#11 Columbia
0-5
246