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Why the Buffalo Bulls should move past Quinn

It is time for a change in the football program. Like any good CEO when White wraps up the season with Jeff Quinn.I wish I was a fly on the wall.

By J. David Brand
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

On Paper - this season has been an absolute success.  A winning record, a new tailgate experience before games, good attendance, and a trip to a bowl game.

But paper does not give the total package.  Congratulations to the Bulls team for beating the teams that should have been beat.  I cannot congratulate the Bulls on winning any games that could have gone either way.  Before you say Ohio, we saw that Ohio was living off its reputation (blown out by Bowling Green 49-0, beat 44 - 13 by Kent State, a loss to Central Michigan and beat the terrible teams from the MAC.)

Do you know who the Buffalo Bulls were this year.  The declining middle class in America.  The conference had very elite teams this season in Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Ball State.  The conference had some middling's in Buffalo, Toledo, Ohio,and Central Michigan.  Then the conference had the poor, the under belly of Div. 1 football with Akron, Kent State, UMass, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan.

Stars_aligned

The stars were aligned for the Bulls and took advantage of a very down year for the MAC.  A fortuitous MAC schedule helped the win total.  But again, that is not the Bulls' fault.  The Bulls also have faced a murderer's row in years past. Here is the rub for the season.

Chart Time:

#1 Schedule Difficulty (using Sagarin Ratings):

Year Average Rating of Teams Faced Season Record
2003 70.3 1-11
2006 85.2 2-10
2008 88.9 8-6
2005 89.2 1-10
2011 92.3 3-9
2012 93 4-8
2002 94.8 1-11
1999 95.1 0-11
2009 101.7 5-7
2007 102.8 5-7
2000 105.2 2-9
2010 109.2 2-10
2001 109.5 3-8
2013 114.3 8-5
2004 124.3 2-9

Gill won in 2008 playing UB's 3rd most difficult schedule in FBS. Quinn won 8 against UB's 2nd easiest schedule.

Chart #2, Top 20 Wins in UB's FBS Era

Gill and Quinn have all 20 of highest rated wins in UB's FBS era.

Gill had the best win and 7 of the top 10 wins, 5 of which came in 2008.

Quinn had 3 of the top 10 wins, only 1 in 2013.

UB Win Rank Year Team Team Rating Coach UB Score Opp. Score Disparity
1 2008 Ball State 65 Gill 42 24 18
2 2011 Ohio 68 Quinn 38 37 1
3 2008 BGSU 88 Gill 40 34 6
4 2008 UTEP 90 Gill 42 17 25
5 2008 Temple 98 Gill 30 28 2
6 2008 Akron 108 Gill 43 40 3
7 2009 UTEP 113 Gill 23 17 6
8 2013 Kent St 113 Quinn 41 21 20
9 2007 Ohio 114 Gill 31 10 21
10 2012 WMU 116 Quinn 29 24 5

Gill had 13 of the 20 highest ranked wins. Quinn had the other 7. While this points to the superiority of Gill, it also shows the futility of UB before Gill. Quinn still has 35% of our best wins. While 2008 saw as many top wins (7) as Quinn has total, 2013 gave us 4 top 20 wins, second to only the 2008 season.

UB Win Rank Year Team Team Rating Coach UB Score Opp. Score Disparity
11 2013 ohio 116 Quinn 30 3 27
12 2013 uconn 118 Quinn 41 12 29
13 2006 kent state 119 Gill 41 14 27
14 2009 kent st 119 Gill 9 6 3
15 2008 ohio 120 Gill 32 19 13
16 2012 miami 125 Quinn 27 24 3
17 2007 toledo 126 Gill 43 33 10
18 2007 akron 127 Gill 26 10 16
19 2008 army 128 Gill 27 24 3
20 2013 stony brook 129 Quinn 26 23 3

Of the 20 worst losses in UB's FBS history, Gill has 4 while Quinn only has 3. Gill lost to 125th ranked WMU in 2009, (20th lowest ranked team to defeat Buffalo) to 130th ranked Kent State in the 2008 finale, (16th), to 133 ranked Miami in 2006, (15th), and to 139th ranked Bowling Green in 2006 (12th).

Quinn did not have a "bad" loss in 2013, but started with 3 awful losses in 2010, against 160th ranked Ball State (7th), against 183rd ranked EMU (2nd) and against 206th ranked Akron (Worst loss in UB's FBS history...a history that includes two losses to FCS teams).

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