BasketballProspectus used KenPom's numbers to predict what will happen in Cleveland. By there numbers Buffalo has about a 1/5 chance, better than anyone in the MAC. Toledo has a 1 in 1,250 chance....
Throw out the seeds in this one. The conference that sent its nine-seed to the NCAA tournament last season to disembowel Georgetown in the first round produces the most unusual breakdown I’ve seen in five seasons of doing this. Much like in the Sun Belt, there’s plenty of parity at the top of the MAC. Unlike the Sun Belt, the MAC’s favorite is an eight-seed, closely followed by its six-seed. And there’s this: Eighth-seeded Buffalo has about a one-in-five chance of cutting down the nets at the Q, while ninth-seeded Central Michigan has a one-in-2000 chance of doing so. Enjoy!
8 Buffalo 92.6 50.2 32.0 20.4
6 Akron 90.8 58.6 37.6 19.0
1 Kent St. 100 48.7 29.1 17.5
2 Western Michigan 100 72.8 35.0 14.7
5 Ohio 96.6 52.9 21.6 11.4
4 Ball St. 100 46.8 17.1 8.2
3 Miami OH 100 39.0 19.6 7.1
7 Bowling Green 69.0 19.6 5.4 1.2
10 Northern Illinois 31.0 7.6 1.8 0.4
11 Eastern Michigan 9.2 2.4 0.6 0.1
9 Central Michigan 7.4 1.1 0.2 0.05
12 Toledo 3.4 0.2 0.01 0.0008