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Fun With KenPom Percentages, Excel, and the MAC

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By Tim Riordan
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I decided to sit down and see what the KenPom game probabilities and MAC tiebreakers would look like.. Here there are, the 32 different possible outcomes of this weeks remaining games. They are sorted by probability and then the seeding implications for one through nine are applied:

Summary:

  • The Bulls have a 3.92% Chance of getting the 5 seed by are most likely going to get the 6 seed (41.89% Chance)
  • There are 8 ways UB has to go on the road and 24 where they get to host. The team they are most likely to host is Bowling Green.

Tables (Wide Tables) after the Jump

UB - BGSU Mia-Ohio Kent-Akron WMU-CMU BSU-NIU Ken Pom 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
UB Mia Kent CMU BSU 7.99% Kent BSU Miami WMU OU UB Akron CMU BGSU
UB Mia Kent CMU NIU 1.41% Kent WMU Miami OU UB Akron BSU CMU BGSU
UB OU Kent CMU BSU 7.09% Kent BSU Miami OU WMU Akron UB CMU BGSU
UB OU Kent CMU NIU 1.25% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU UB CMU BGSU
UB OU Akron CMU NIU 0.70% Kent WMU Akron OU Miami BSU UB CMU BGSU
UB Mia Akron CMU NIU 0.79% Mia WMU Kent Akron OU BSU UB CMU BGSU
UB OU Akron CMU BSU 3.99% Kent BSU WMU OU Akron Miami UB CMU BGSU
UB Mia Akron CMU BSU 4.50% Miami BSU Kent Akron WMU OU UB CMU BGSU
UB OU Kent WMU BSU 12.60% Kent WMU Miami BSU OU UB Akron BGSU CMU
UB Mia Kent WMU BSU 14.21% Kent WMU Miami BSU OU UB Akron BGSU CMU
UB Mia Kent WMU NIU 2.51% Kent WMU Miami OU UB Akron BSU BGSU CMU
UB OU Kent WMU NIU 2.22% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU UB BGSU CMU
UB OU Akron WMU NIU 1.25% Kent WMU Akron OU Miami BSU UB BGSU CMU
UB OU Akron WMU BSU 7.09% Kent WMU Akron OU Miami BSU UB BGSU CMU
UB Mia Akron WMU NIU 1.41% Kent WMU Miami Akron OU BSU UB BGSU CMU
UB Mia Akron WMU BSU 7.99% Kent WMU Miami Akron BSU OU UB BGSU CMU
BGSU OU Kent WMU BSU 3.76% Kent WMU OU Miami BSU Akron BGSU UB CMU
BGSU Mia Kent WMU BSU 4.24% Kent WMU Miami BSU OU Akron BGSU UB CMU
BGSU OU Akron WMU NIU 0.37% Kent WMU OU Miami Akron BSU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU Mia Akron WMU NIU 0.42% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU OU Kent WMU NIU 0.66% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU Mia Kent WMU NIU 0.75% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU OU Akron WMU BSU 2.12% Kent WMU Akron OU Miami BSU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU Mia Akron WMU BSU 2.39% Kent WMU Miami Akron BSU OU BGSU UB CMU
BGSU OU Kent CMU BSU 2.12% Kent BSU OU Miami WMU Akron BGSU CMU UB
BGSU Mia Kent CMU BSU 2.39% Kent BSU Miami WMU OU Akron BGSU CMU UB
BGSU OU Akron CMU NIU 0.21% Kent WMU OU Miami Akron BSU BGSU CMU UB
BGSU Mia Akron CMU NIU 0.24% Miami WMU Kent OU Akron BSU BGSU CMU UB
BGSU OU Kent CMU NIU 0.37% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU BGSU CMU UB
BGSU Mia Kent CMU NIU 0.42% Kent WMU Miami OU Akron BSU BGSU CMU UB
BGSU OU Akron CMU BSU 1.19% Kent BSU WMU OU Akron Miami BGSU CMU UB
BGSU Mia Akron CMU BSU 1.34% Miami BSU Kent Akron WMU OU BGSU CMU UB
Break down by Team and Seed:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Kent 93.13% 0.00% 6.87% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
WMU 0.00% 69.40% 5.18% 12.49% 12.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Miami 6.87% 0.00% 70.33% 6.46% 11.16% 5.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BSU 0.00% 30.60% 0.00% 28.94% 16.26% 20.29% 3.91% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
OU 0.00% 0.00% 6.46% 33.69% 43.64% 16.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Akron 0.00% 0.00% 11.16% 18.43% 12.09% 23.52% 34.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Buffalo 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.92% 34.80% 38.28% 14.72% 8.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BGSU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 23.00% 49.28% 27.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CMU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.00% 64.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NIU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
EMU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Toledo 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

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