Last season it was all about Drew Willy who most, expected to be a late round quarterback selection. Willy fell thought the seventh and started an eight month journey to the roster of the Indianapolis Colts.
This year there is one Bull who is a virtual lock to get drafted (James Starks) two more who have an outside chance (Roosevelt and Newton), and yet two more who should manage to get picked up as undrafted free agents after the draft dust settles.
James Starks: (CBS has Starks as the 11th best halfback prospect, going in the fifth round).
Patrick Moran at Buffalo Sports Daily told me via twitter that he does not think Starks is around by the fifth round. If Starks really is the 11th best in the draft recent history would drop him somewhere in the fourth round:
Recent Running Back Selections in the NFL Draft
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | ∑ (1-5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
11 |
2008 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
14 |
2007 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
12 |
2006 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
12 |
2005 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
15 |
Avg |
3.4 |
2 |
2.8 |
3 |
1.6 |
12.8 |
Bold Indicates where the 11th back was taken
I don't know if this is going to be a running back heavy draft or not. One would have to really follow the NFL to know the need among all teams but I agree with Patrick Moran, Starks should go no later than the fourth round. Somebody is going to decide that between the fact he would have been a first day selection had he not been injured and that he made a full recovery in time for his strong showing in the combine (15 reps) that starks is a steal.
Mike Newton: (CBS has Newton as the 21st best free safety prospect, going as an UDFA)
Newton's monster pro day moved him from being a possible post draft UDFA pick up, where Drew Willy ended up last season, to a potential late round pick and an almost certain UDFA if he is not drafted.
Recent Safety Selections in the NFL Draft
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | ∑ (1-5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
21 |
2008 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
15 |
2007 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
20 |
2006 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
24 |
2005 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
20 |
Avg |
1.6 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
4 |
3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
20 |
Bold Indicates where the 21st safety was taken
It's hard to know how many safeties will be picked up this season, usually it's around 20 so if Newton managed to impress in the private workouts he had with NFL teams he stands a good chance of sneaking in.
Naaman Roosevelt: (CBS has Roosevelt as the 63rd best receiver prospect with no draft or FA projection)
It's not Roosevelt's performance at the senior Bowl or UB's pro day that hurt him. In both instances he showed himself to be among the NCAA's elite receivers. What has hurt his stock is the press around those events. The Senior bowl television coverage was completely maddening. Constant digs at Roosevelt's hands (which Buffalo fans know work just fine) whenever he was on screen made me want to chuck my TV out of the window.
Mike Newton stole his thunder at the UB pro-day. Roosevelt had good numbers and looked solid in drills but the unexpected emergence of Newton caught the most headlines.
Recent Receiver Selections in the NFL Draft
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | ∑ (1-5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 |
6 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
8 |
34 |
2008 |
0 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
34 |
2007 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
33 |
2006 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
28 |
2005 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
31 |
Avg |
3.8 |
4.4 |
5.6 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
4 |
6.6 |
32 |
Bold Indicates where the 27th receiver was taken
CBS is so far off on Roosevelt's ranking that I am forced to look elsewhere. Scout has Roosevelt as the 22nd best receiver in the draft, WalterFootball has him at number 35, I will split the difference and call it 27. Roosevelt has had some public interest from the Bears but there is little chance he goes before the seventh round. If scout is closer than Walter Football he should go as early as the sixth round.
Jessie Rack (CBS has Rack as the 33rd best tight end prospect with no draft or FA projection)
If Rack's breakout season was not also his senior season he is probably ranked in the top fifteen or so in the draft. Unfortunately just one standout season, even a first team all conference season, is not going to be enough to get him drafted.
Recent Receiver Selections in the NFL Draft
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | ∑ (1-5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
20 |
2008 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
16 |
2007 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
5 |
13 |
2006 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
17 |
2005 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
13 |
Avg |
1.2 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
2 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
15.8 |
While the number of Tight Ends being drafted is on an upward trend it would be surprising if this year there were more than 20 picked. Being the 13th best undrafted tight end in the nation might get him a try out somewhere but he will defiantly have to quickly prove himself wherever he ends up.
Brett Hamlin (CBS has Hamlin as the 93rd best receiver prospect with no draft or FA projection)
CBS proves again that it's not too sharp when it comes to wide outs, Hamlin is probably correctly ranked somewhere in the 50's but that's not going to get him drafted. He has had workouts with at least one NFL team (Miami) and his pro day was pretty impressive so I expect he will sign on somewhere shortly after the draft. Whoever signs him is going to get one of the best post draft pickups in the nation, Hamlin is tough (physically and mentally) has amazing hands and respectable speed.