I looked at the 35 defensive ends and linebackers drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2009. Ranked based on their NFL performance, the list looks like this:
Rank | Draft Year | Draft Pick | Name |
1 | 2011 | 11 | JJ Watt |
2 | 2013 | 30 | Alec Ogletree |
3 | 2011 | 16 | Ryan Kerrigan |
4 | 2012 | 9 | Luke Kuechly |
5 | 2011 | 2 | Von Miller |
6 | 2009 | 15 | Brian Cushing |
7 | 2009 | 26 | Clay Matthews |
7 | 2012 | 21 | Chandler Jones |
9 | 2011 | 14 | Robert Quinn |
10 | 2011 | 7 | Aldon Smith |
11 | 2011 | 24 | Cameron Jordan |
11 | 2011 | 20 | Adrian Clayborn |
13 | 2009 | 13 | Brian Orakpo |
14 | 2010 | 19 | Sean Weatherspoon |
15 | 2012 | 25 | Don't'a Hightower |
16 | 2010 | 8 | Rolando McClain |
17 | 2012 | 26 | Whitney Mercilus |
18 | 2013 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo |
18 | 2012 | 16 | Quinton Coples |
20 | 2009 | 4 | Aaron Curry |
20 | 2013 | 5 | Ezekiel Ansah |
22 | 2012 | 15 | Bruce irvin |
22 | 2012 | 28 | Nick Perry |
24 | 2013 | 17 | Jarvis Jones |
25 | 2009 | 18 | Robert Ayers |
26 | 2011 | 31 | Cameron Heyward |
27 | 2010 | 31 | Jerry Hughes |
27 | 2009 | 3 | Tyson Jackson |
29 | 2012 | 18 | Melvin Ingram |
30 | 2012 | 19 | Shea McClellin |
31 | 2013 | 3 | Dion Jordan |
31 | 2013 | 26 | Datone Jones |
33 | 2013 | 24 | Bjorn Werner |
34 | 2009 | 16 | Larry English |
35 | 2009 | 11 | Aaron Maybin |
Analyzing the list, I looked for the stats that correlated with the best players to see which first-round LB/DE talent I would take in the 2014 draft. I then compared the data with the top DE/LB talent this year: Khalil Mack, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier, Jadeveon Clowney, Kony Ealy, Dee Ford, and Trent Murphy.
The most significant stats were solo tackles/game (.462 correlation), stuffs (TFL/sacks)/game (.429), and tackles/game (.419).
Ryan Shazier was the best of the group in college in solo tackles/game and tackles/game. Mack was #2 in each. Mack was #1 in stuffs/game, and Shazier was #2.
Combine activities that proved somewhat significant were the three-cone drill (.372), broad jump ( .272), and the 20-yard shuttle (.229). Trent Murphy and Anthony Barr were the best in the three-cone, while Mack was 1st in the 20-yard shuttle and 2nd in the broad jump. Shazier was 1st in broad jump and 2nd in the shuttle.
Three-cone
# | Year | draft | name | Rank | 3 cone |
1 | 2011 | 2 | Von Miller | 5 | 6.7000 |
2 | 2012 | 15 | Bruce irvin | 22 | 6.7000 |
3 | 2014 | Trent Murphy | 6.780 | ||
4 | 2014 | Anthony Barr | 6.820 | ||
5 | 2012 | 18 | Melvin Ingram | 29 | 6.8300 |
6 | 2014 | Kony Ealy | 6.830 | ||
7 | 2009 | 15 | Brian Cushing | 6 | 6.8400 |
8 | 2013 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo | 18 | 6.8400 |
9 | 2011 | 11 | JJ Watt | 1 | 6.8800 |
10 | 2009 | 26 | Clay Matthews | 7 | 6.9000 |
11 | 2014 | Ryan Shazier | 6.910 | ||
12 | 2012 | 9 | Luke Kuechly | 4 | 6.9200 |
13 | 2011 | 14 | Robert Quinn | 9 | 6.9900 |
14 | 2010 | 19 | Sean Weatherspoon | 14 | 6.9900 |
15 | 2010 | 31 | Jerry Hughes | 27 | 6.9900 |
16 | 2013 | 3 | Dion Jordan | 31 | 7.0200 |
17 | 2012 | 21 | Chandler Jones | 7 | 7.0700 |
18 | 2011 | 24 | Cameron Jordan | 11 | 7.0700 |
19 | 2009 | 18 | Robert Ayers | 25 | 7.0700 |
20 | 2012 | 19 | Shea McClellin | 30 | 7.0700 |
21 | 2014 | Dee Ford | 7.070 | ||
22 | 2011 | 20 | Adrian Clayborn | 11 | 7.0800 |
23 | 2014 | Khalil Mack | 7.080 | ||
24 | 2013 | 5 | Ezekiel Ansah | 20 | 7.1100 |
25 | 2009 | 4 | Aaron Curry | 20 | 7.1500 |
26 | 2013 | 30 | Alec Ogletree | 2 | 7.1600 |
27 | 2010 | 8 | Rolando McClain | 16 | 7.1600 |
28 | 2012 | 26 | Whitney Mercilus | 17 | 7.1700 |
29 | 2011 | 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | 3 | 7.1800 |
30 | 2011 | 7 | Aldon Smith | 10 | 7.1900 |
31 | 2012 | 28 | Nick Perry | 22 | 7.2500 |
32 | 2009 | 13 | Brian Orakpo | 13 | 7.2600 |
33 | 2009 | 16 | Larry English | 34 | 7.2600 |
34 | 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | 7.270 |
Broad jump
# | Year | draft | name | Rank | broad |
1 | 2014 | Ryan Shazier | 130 | ||
2 | 2009 | 13 | Brian Orakpo | 13 | 130 |
3 | 2009 | 11 | Aaron Maybin | 35 | 130 |
4 | 2012 | 19 | Shea McClellin | 30 | 129 |
5 | 2013 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo | 18 | 128 |
6 | 2014 | Khalil Mack | 128 | ||
7 | 2011 | 2 | Von Miller | 5 | 126 |
8 | 2011 | 14 | Robert Quinn | 9 | 125 |
9 | 2014 | Dee Ford | 124 | ||
10 | 2009 | 4 | Aaron Curry | 20 | 124 |
11 | 2012 | 28 | Nick Perry | 22 | 124 |
12 | 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | 124 | ||
13 | 2012 | 15 | Bruce irvin | 22 | 123 |
14 | 2012 | 9 | Luke Kuechly | 4 | 123 |
15 | 2010 | 19 | Sean Weatherspoon | 14 | 123 |
16 | 2013 | 3 | Dion Jordan | 31 | 122 |
17 | 2013 | 30 | Alec Ogletree | 2 | 122 |
18 | 2011 | 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | 3 | 122 |
19 | 2009 | 26 | Clay Matthews | 7 | 121 |
20 | 2009 | 15 | Brian Cushing | 6 | 120 |
21 | 2011 | 11 | JJ Watt | 1 | 120 |
22 | 2014 | Anthony Barr | 119 | ||
23 | 2014 | Trent Murphy | 118 |
20-yard shuttle
# | Year | draft | name | Rank | 20-Yd Shuttle |
1 | 2012 | 15 | Bruce irvin | 22 | 4.03 |
2 | 2011 | 2 | Von Miller | 5 | 4.06 |
3 | 2012 | 9 | Luke Kuechly | 4 | 4.12 |
4 | 2011 | 20 | Adrian Clayborn | 11 | 4.13 |
5 | 2010 | 31 | Jerry Hughes | 27 | 4.15 |
6 | 2014 | Khalil Mack | 4.18 | ||
7 | 2009 | 26 | Clay Matthews | 7 | 4.18 |
8 | 2012 | 18 | Melvin Ingram | 29 | 4.18 |
9 | 2014 | Anthony Barr | 4.19 | ||
10 | 2014 | Trent Murphy | 4.20 | ||
11 | 2014 | Ryan Shazier | 4.21 | ||
12 | 2011 | 11 | JJ Watt | 1 | 4.21 |
13 | 2009 | 15 | Brian Cushing | 6 | 4.22 |
14 | 2013 | 5 | Ezekiel Ansah | 20 | 4.26 |
15 | 2011 | 14 | Robert Quinn | 9 | 4.31 |
16 | 2013 | 26 | Datone Jones | 31 | 4.32 |
17 | 2012 | 19 | Shea McClellin | 30 | 4.33 |
18 | 2013 | 3 | Dion Jordan | 31 | 4.35 |
19 | 2011 | 24 | Cameron Jordan | 11 | 4.37 |
20 | 2009 | 11 | Aaron Maybin | 35 | 4.38 |
21 | 2010 | 19 | Sean Weatherspoon | 14 | 4.38 |
22 | 2009 | 16 | Larry English | 34 | 4.38 |
23 | 2010 | 8 | Rolando McClain | 16 | 4.38 |
24 | 2012 | 21 | Chandler Jones | 7 | 4.38 |
25 | 2013 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo | 18 | 4.39 |
26 | 2013 | 30 | Alec Ogletree | 2 | 4.39 |
27 | 2011 | 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | 3 | 4.39 |
28 | 2013 | 24 | Bjorn Werner | 33 | 4.40 |
29 | 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | 4.43 | ||
30 | 2009 | 13 | Brian Orakpo | 13 | 4.45 |
Sacks had the most significant negative relationship. The higher the sack numbers in college, the lower the success rate in the NFL. I could rationalize that as young effective pass rushers don't necessarily need good technique to be successful at the college level, but then struggle against NFL linemen. My 10 lowest-ranked athletes combined for 201 sacks in 465 college games (0.4 sacks/game), but have only managed 65 sacks in 371 NFL games (.18 sacks/game).
# | Year | draft | name | Rank | College Sacks |
1 | 2011 | 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | 3 | 33.5 |
2 | 2011 | 2 | Von Miller | 5 | 33.0 |
3 | 2014 | Trent Murphy | 32.5 | ||
4 | 2009 | 16 | Larry English | 34 | 31.5 |
5 | 2010 | 31 | Jerry Hughes | 27 | 28.5 |
6 | 2014 | Khalil Mack | 28.5 | ||
7 | 2013 | 17 | Jarvis Jones | 24 | 28.0 |
8 | 2012 | 16 | Quinton Coples | 18 | 24.0 |
9 | 2014 | Jadeveon Clowney | 24 | ||
10 | 2013 | 24 | Bjorn Werner | 33 | 23.5 |
11 | 2014 | Anthony Barr | 23.5 | ||
12 | 2009 | 13 | Brian Orakpo | 13 | 23.0 |
13 | 2012 | 15 | Bruce irvin | 22 | 22.5 |
14 | 2012 | 28 | Nick Perry | 22 | 21.5 |
15 | 2012 | 18 | Melvin Ingram | 29 | 21.5 |
X-factors
Jadeveon Clowney's X-factor is his athleticism.
Khalil Mack's X-factor is his turnovers forced. Out of 42 players in the sample, only 6 players managed to force more than 10 turnovers in their college careers: Von Miller, Whitney Mercilus, Jerry Hughes and Aaron Curry all forced 11. Ryan Kerrigan forced 15 turnovers. Khalil Mack, with 4 Interceptions and 16 forced fumbles, forced 20.
Ryan Shazier is my top LB pick; however his size is a negative X-factor. He is the 4th-shortest LB/DE pound for pound in the sample, and he is the lightest, at his combine weight of 237 pounds. At Ohio State he played at 230, creeping into NFL strong safety size. He is tied for the shortest LB/DE at 6'1, and he only has one career interception and 16 career passes defended.
Conclusion
If I had to select a player, Khalil Mack has shown me enough to be on top of my board at DE/LB. Clowney's numbers worry me, but in the right situation, he will be a monster in the NFL. A little bigger Shazier would be the top pick on defense for me. Shazier reminds me of London Fletcher, and I think he has the ability to be a tackling machine.
I predict Mack comes off the board first, #3 at Jacksonville. Clowney goes #4 to Cleveland, and Shazier goes #16 to Dallas, where his speed and agility will be put to use chasing down Desean Jackson, RG3, Shady McCoy, and the rest of the high-speed NFC East.