Friday Night Rant: Prediction: MAC Preseason Predictions Will Be Very Wrong

DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 02: Matt Weller #49 knows the #1 preseason ranking is the kiss of death. He'll get the blame when he shanks a game winning field goal on a random Tuesday in November, but if you study the numbers, you'd see it was bound to happen. (Photo by Mark A. Cunningham/Getty Images)

I was first very bitter over the MAC Preseason Poll in 2007, when Temple was voted to finish ahead of Buffalo, we beat them in 2006 and we didn't even play that well. Since then, I have put on my monocle, opened up the website, and gasped shocked at how little RESPECT the Bulls get from the conference, and I try my best not to sound like a Temple fan.

So tonight I looked at the 2006-2011 MAC Preseason predictions, and come to the conclusion that the people who cover the MAC must only watch MAC West Football, and probably only watch MAC East Basketball (because, well the West is awful at roundball)

I looked at the predictions versus actual results and found that we should get Buffalo against Toledo in the MAC Championship game. Ohio was selected to win the MAC, but the team selected to win in the preseason has only won once in the past 6 years.

Toledo will win, because the best place to be in a MAC preseason poll is 2nd place in the MAC Champ voting. If your not at #2, the next best place is to get 0 votes. While 33% time in the last 6 years the #2 team won the MAC, 33% of the time a team that garnered no votes, like Buffalo this year, ended up winning the MAC.

Conrad Poll:

MAC East

1) Buffalo
2) Kent State
3) Ohio
4) Miami
5) Bowling Green
6) Akron
7) UMass

MAC West

1) Toledo
2) NIU
3) WMU
4) Ball State
5) EMU
6) CMU

MAC Championship Game Winner
Toledo (5)
Buffalo (4)
NIU (2)
Kent State (1)

Ok so we'll get Toledo vs Buffalo and it's too close to call a winner, but I'm still going to lean Toledo, as 4 of the last 5 winners had at least 1 vote to win the conference. Each poll position is broken down after the jump.

And remember, when the Bulls make the improbable run to Detroit, it wasn't improbable it was science and you heard it here first.

MAC EAST:

2012 preseason #1: Ohio Bobcats. Since 2006, no team selected to win the MAC East actually won the MAC East.
The Best team
was the 2008 Bowling Green Falcons (We had something to do with that, sorry to crash your predictions brah!)
Worst team
, tie between the 2009 Buffalo Bulls and the 2011 Miami Redhawks, both teams predicted to win the division but finished 5th.
Average finish for the preseason #1
: 3.6.
Ohio will finish
: 3rd in the MAC East

2012 preseason #2: Bowling Green State University Falcons. The MAC picked this slot right twice in the last six years.
The Best team
was the 2011 Ohio Bobcats, who overcame their #2 preseason ranking and won the whole thing, and they had a 20-0 lead when I turned of the MAC championship game, so I'm sure they went on to win the...oh the judges are telling me, no they did not win the MAC, but MAC East Champs...that's still good.
Worst team
, Tie between the 2007 Kent State Flashes and the 2008 Miami Redhawks, both teams finished dead last.
Average finish for the preseason #2
: 4.
BGSU will finish
: 5th in the MAC East

2012 preseason #3: Miami Redhawks. The MAC has gone 0-6 at the #3 spot since 2006.
The Best team
was the 2008 Buffalo Bulls, who won the MAC.
Worst team
, Tie between the 2007 Akron Zips and the 2009 Akron Zips, both teams finished 6th. Akron can't even beat Akron these days.
Average finish for the preseason #3
: 3.83.
Miami will finish
: 4th in the MAC East

2012 preseason #4: Kent State Golden Flashes. The MAC has gone 0-6 at the #4 spot since 2006.
The Best team,
Tie between the 2006 Ohio Bobcats, 2007 Miami Redhawks, and the 2009 Ohio Bobcats. All 3 teams won the MAC East.
Worst team
The 2008 Kent State Golden Flashes finished 6th.
Average finish for the preseason #4
: 2.83
Kent State will finish
: 2nd in the MAC East, but as 50% of East champs are slotted at 4, we give them a 50/50 chance at winning it.

2012 preseason #5: The State University of New York at Buffalo Bulls. The MAC has gone 0-6 at the #5 spot since 2006.
The Best team
2010 Miami won the MAC
Worst team
2011 Bowling Green finished 4th.
Average finish for the preseason #5: 2.5
Buffalo will finish
: 1st in the MAC East

2012 preseason #6: Akron Zips. The MAC has accurately prognosticated the #6 team twice in the last 6 years.
The Best team
tie, 2008 Ohio and 2009 Kent finished 4th
Worst team
2010 Buffalo finished 7th
Average finish for the preseason #6: 5.3
Akron will finish
: 6th in the MAC East

2012 preseason #7: The University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen. The MAC has guessed #7 correctly twice in 5 years.
The Best team 2007 Buffalo Bulls finished 3rd
Worst team
tie, 2009 Miami and 2011 Akron finished last.
Average finish for the preseason #7: 5.6
UMass will finish
: 7th in the MAC East

MAC WEST:

2012 preseason #1: Toledo Rockets. Since 2006, The MAC is 2-4 at this slot.
The Best team
tie, 2009 CMU and 2010 NIU both won the MAC West
Worst team
, tie 2006 NIU and 2007 WMU finished 3rd.
Average finish for the preseason #1
: 2
Toledo will finish
: 1st in the MAC West

2012 preseason #2: Northern Illinois University Huskies. The MAC is 0-6 at this slot.
The Best team
tie, 2007 CMU, 2008 Ball State, 2011 NIU all won the West.
Worst team
, tie between the 2006 Rockets and the 2010 Chippewa, both teams finished 5th.
Average finish for the preseason #2
: 2.6
NIU will finish
: 2nd in the MAC West, but 3 of the last 6 winners were picked to finish 2nd, so they have a 50/50 shot at winning the west.

2012 preseason #3: Western Michigan Broncos. The MAC bats .500 at this slot.
The Best team
tie, 2006 WMU and 2009 NIU both finished 2nd.
Worst team
, 2007 Toledo
Average finish for the preseason #3
: 3.
WMU will finish
: 3rd in the MAC West

2012 preseason #4: Ball State University Cardinals. The MAC is 1-5 in this slot.
The Best team, 2006 CMU won the MAC.
Worst team 2011 CMU finished last.
Average finish for the preseason #4
: 3.3
Ball State will finish
: 4th in the MAC West.

2012 preseason #5: Eastern Michigan University Eagles. The MAC is 1-5 at the #5 spot.
The Best team
tie, 2006 Ball State, 2010 Ball State, 2011 Ball State all finished 4th.
Worst team
tie, 2007 NIU and 2008 EMU finished 6th.
Average finish for the preseason #5: 4.83
EMU will finish
: 5th in the MAC West

2012 preseason #6: Central Michigan University Chippewas. The MAC is .500 in picking this slot. Selecting EMU to finish last is like betting on black in roulette.
The Best team
tie, 2007 EMU, 2008 NIU both finished 4th.
Worst team
tie, 2006 EMU, 2009 EMU, 2010 EMU all finished last.
Average finish for the preseason #6: 5.16
CMU will finish
: 6th in the MAC West

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