The Postgame Meal: Bowling Green 2012

buffalobulls.com

Joe Licata had his chance to own the team.

The Final Postgame Meal wraps up the game. After the MAC Championship I'll wrap up the season with The Postseason Meal. 4-8, sadness, etc.

He failed. Chart time.

Zordich Licata Advantage
Completions -4.7 -2.2 Licata
Attempts -4.7 -1.2 Licata
Completion % -8% -5% Licata
Passing Yards/Game -70 -18 Licata
Yards/Completion 0.85 0.34 Zordich
Yards/Attempt -1.33 -0.44 Licata
QB Rating -24.73 -8.03 Licata
Touchdowns -0.64 -0.23 Licata
Interceptions -0.006 -0.396 Licata
Team Rushing Yards 36.83 -39.42 Zordich
Avg Rushing Yards/Attempt 0.308 -1.083 Zordich

If you watched the Bulls, you don't need the chart to tell that Licata out-shined Zordich in the passing game, while Zordich enhanced the running game with his scrambles and the zone read option. The question stood: was Licata better due to playing inferior defenses? The chart says no, taking the performances of each QB (I didn't count Toledo) and comparing them to the average stats allowed for their seasons, Licata performed better than Zordich, although both QB's performed below their opponents average allowed in every category except average yards per completion.

The Kent game is the outlier in the data for Zordich, but also a real reason for concern. His numbers were maybe the worst number i've ever seen in one game. His numbers compared to Kent's season averages:
Completion percentage: 42% below
Yards thrown: 190 yards below
Passer Rating: 81.09 below

Kent was a very winnable game, that we lost because our Quarterback did not show up. If it's Licata's team for that reason, then it is probably a valid reason. If it's just one bad game, lets revisit the stats after we remove the Kent game:

Zordich Licata Advantage
Completions -1.8 -2.2 Zordich
Attempts -2.4 -1.2 Licata
Completion % -2% -5% Zordich
Passing Yards/Game -45 -18 Licata
Yards/Completion -1.14 0.34 Licata
Yards/Attempt -0.95 -0.44 Licata
QB Rating -13.45 -8.03 Licata
Touchdowns -0.55 -0.23 Licata
Interceptions -0.041 -0.396 Licata
Team Rushing Yards 36.46 -39.42 Zordich
Avg Rushing Yards/Attempt 0.260 -1.083 Zordich

Taking away the Kent game, Zordich has a better adjusted completion/game and completion percentage number. Added with the better running numbers, Zordich might give us the best opportunity to win certain games. People also say, don't forget about Colin Michael or Tony Daniel...and there is time to find a 5th year senior, or recruit a star Freshman. Final Chart.

Quarterback Wins Losses Winning Percentage
Licata 3 1 .750
Davis 2 6 .250
Zordich 1 11 .083
Michael 0 0 .000
Daniel 0 0 .000

If wins matter, Licata earned the start in 2013. Of course that is a big IF, as our Coach has a .250 winning percentage and was rewarded with 36 additional games as coach. By proportion, Zordich's .083 winning percentage would be good enough for 11.952 games, or one more season as starter.

Sadness Music: Tim went with "Money for Nothing" in honor of Jeff Quinn's extension. I'll go with "No Easy Way Out.*" Fire the coach, rebuild...that's the easy thing to do. It's like a painkiller, to ease the pain. Well none for us, we're gonna have to grin and bear the pain until whatever is wrong with UB football is ultimately fixed. We will either win the hard way, or learn the hard way that Quinn will never be the coach to lead us back to glory.

*Shameless Plug: Shot-for-shot Rocky IV remake video was made by a friend of mine. His first feature production Get Serious is coming to DVD soon!

Hydration: Egg Nog, in a way, I am glad this season is over, so this last game is like a Christmas present to my heart. No more hopes dashed, no more last second blunders, no more 3rd and 21 conversions allowed, no more 3rd and 20 draw plays. Drink and relax...280 days until the anger returns.

Nutritionation: The Ted's streak is over, time for leftovers. Leftover turkey, that at this point is dried out and probably no longer suitable to eat. It's a good metaphor for Jeff Quinn, way past his Cincinnati prime.

Player Hating:

  • My biggest complaint of the day was Najja Johnson, who had a great game, with one lapse. On the big touchdown pass, Najja was in excellent position, but instead of catching the ball at it's highest point, he waited for the ball to come to him. The receiver jumped up, caught the ball in the air, and waltzed into the end zone. That was basically the end of the game. We have a hard enough time getting into position, we need to finish once we are there.

11 factors to decide the game: (abbreviated).

1) BGSU Offense vs Buffalo Defense:

You see Bowling Green averages 4.74 yards per carry running Only 2/carry Friday
while Buffalo averages 4.58 yards per carry. Only 1/carry on Friday

Buffalo, a running team runs 57% of the time while BGSU is 50/50 split between run and pass plays. Buffalo went 31 passes to 29 runs, while BGSU went 42 runs to 30 passes.

In the passing game, both teams average around 6.3 yards per attempt, with Buffalo gaining 12 yards per completion to BGSU's 11.5 yards per attempt.

I'm concerned about BGSU's balance, they can keep UB guessing which is never a good thing. But I'm also concerned about BGSU's lack of a dynamic rusher, (no offense Anthon Samuel). This is a push.

Bowling Green committed to the run, which set up the passing game to average 7.6 yards per attempt and make big plays despite big turnovers.

3) Buffalo Offense vs BGSU Defense:

BGSU has the #1 Passing and Rushing defense in the conference. This will be the only test of the Licata era. If he is for real, he'll do it against the best.

Licata had a rough day, but made no mistakes. Neutz was great as usual, 6 receptions 92 yards. This showed once and for all, we are a running team, without a healthy BO or Campbell, the running game went nowhere.

5) Key Player:

Anthon "Marathon" Samuel: To my knowledge no one calls him "Marathon." The BGSU back, is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has 10 TDs, but only 176 carries on the season, (thats like 3 games work for Oliver). UB's defense is better when the other team is one dimensional, if we can stop Samuel, we can pin back and attack the QB.

Marathon had 9 carries for -4 yards, John Pettigrew had his 2nd best game of the year with 93 carries on 29 yards.

Joe "bi-Wan" Licata: The Licata era had taken place against Toledo, Miami, Western Michigan and Massachusetts. These teams were 9th, 7th, 8th and 13th in conference in opposing QB passer rating. BGSU is #1. The best defense we saw in conference was NIU and they destroyed Zordich and our offensive gameplan. If Licata has a bad game, all bets are off for 2013. If Licata has a good or even a decent game, the team is his.

Licata was average, not Kent State bad, but not WMU good either.

7) Key Situation: Behind the Line

BGSU has only allowed 51 tackles for loss, including 13 sacks. Buffalo is 4th in tackles for a loss and 1st in sacks. After a 8 sack performance, Buffalo's front seven will have to prove their mettle, and outperform the BGSU offensive line if Buffalo has any chance in this game.

Holy inconsistency after an 8 sack game, we manage 0 sacks against BGSU. BGSU allowed just under 5 TFL's per game, but we managed 9 tackles for a loss, and 3 interceptions. Imagine what our defense could have done this year with good playcalling.

9) Key Quarter: 2nd Quarter

In 21 of the 44 quarters played this year, BGSU has not allowed a point. In 8 more quarters, they allowed 6 or less points. 9 quarters, BGSU has allowed more than 8 points all season. 6 of those were in the 2nd quarter. BGSU finishes incredibly strong. UB is going to want to build a lead in the 2nd quarter.

Bowling Green finishes their season with 24 shut out quarters out of 48 quarters played, remarkable. In comparison, Buffalo shut out opponents for 11 of 48 quarters played this year. BGSU's weak quarter, the second, we were outscored 14-0.

4-8, we went from not knowing who our QB is, ready to fire our coach, but hopeful after an Ohio win and a near NIU loss to, not knowing who our QB is unable to fire our coach and hopeful after a win over WMU and Miami. Oh boy it's gonna be a fun 2013.

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