The Pregame Meal Miami part 2. The University AT Buffalo faces Miami OF Ohio to decide once and for all which is the most disappointing.
11 factors to decide the game.
1) Miami Offense vs Buffalo Defense:
Miami doesn't run. Buffalo has 3 runners with more yards than Miami's leading rusher. In 4 MAC games we have faced 9 runners who have each gained more than Miami's Westbrook who has 263 yards to lead the team.
Miami gives the ball to Dysert and they run a west coast attack. Dysert averages 9.5 yards per completion and 7.3 yard per attempt. To put that in perspective, Zordich is averaging 11.8 yards per completion. Miami will try to nickel and dime down the field.
Dysert has 4 weapons: Cruse, the main target with 54 receptions averaging 7.6 yards per reception. Harwell and Tight End Marck have 31 and 15 receptions respectively and gain about 14 yard per reception. Finally Dawan Scott, the X-factor on Miami has 36 receptions for 16.5 yards per catch.
Buffalo's bend, don't break drop back defense, combined with the swirling Buffalo wind might give Buffalo's defense the edge against Miami's west coast style.
2) At vs. Of
The State University of New York AT Buffalo aka the University AT Buffalo
Miami University OF Ohio aka Miami OF Ohio
Tempted to push, New York makes you think NYC, so "at Buffalo" gives an inherent let down, and when you say Miami people think South Beach, so "of Ohio" gives a similar let down. However most people not from the Northeast assume Buffalo is in or near New York City, while everyone knows and kinda dislikes Ohio.
3) Buffalo Offense vs Miami Defense:
Well it's Licata time. Miami is 10th in pass defense and 12th in run defense in the MAC. Buffalo is healthy minus Zordich. If Licata is what half the fan base thinks he is, we should win, if he is not as good as Zordich, we'll probably lose. It will be interesting to see. If we give up on the run like we did last week, we'll lose.
4) NFL Team
Buffalo Bills 3-4
Cincinnati Bengals 3-4
5) Key Player:
Dawan Scott: Yet another special MAC athlete who is an all purpose machine. Scott is 7th in the MAC with 126.6 all-purpose yards per game (Behind our friends Dri Archer, Bernard Reedy, David Fluellen, Beau Blankenship and Jordan Lynch). Alex Neutz is #1 in the MAC in yards gained per play, but Dawan Scott is 3rd in that category, he is Miami's explosive weapon.
Joe Licata: He'll get the start, and the speculation ends. This could be a Drew Willy moment where he takes over and never gives it back, or it could be a 2010 Alex Zordich moment that leaves you scouring the nation for 5th year senior QBs. One things for sure, if we lose, people will say, well it's not Quinn's fault he had to start his 4th QB in 3 years. (In actuality this is awful for Quinn either way. If we win, we'll wonder why we wasted 2011 on Chazz and 2012 on Zordich. Why Quinn continually said Zordich was better, and wonder if Quinn can scout talent. If we lose, Quinn is 0-3 on QB's he brought to Buffalo.)
6) Google Image Search
Miami: Miami Wins
7) Key Situation: The Schedule
What is the value of confidence?
Miami has 4 wins: at Akron, vs Southern Illinois, vs UMass and vs Ohio.
With that schedule, we might have 3 wins as well, we lost to Ohio by 7 on the road, we might have beat them at home.
So if the Bulls were 4-4, playing the 1-7 Redhawks, but the teams were the same as they will be on Saturday, would we play better?
What is the effect of playing all our hard teams first and falling to 1-7? We have 4 games we should compete in starting this week. While everyone has given up on the team, the men in the locker room will show us what they are made of, and perhaps more importantly, show us if they have confidence in this coaching staff.
The Redhawks continue to have a pretty easy season and can attain bowl eligibility with road wins against Buffalo and Central Michigan. Their toughest games are both at home against Kent and Ball State. Will the confidence that comes with wins over soft teams carry Miami on Saturday, or will the Bulls burst their bubble?
Advantage: Buffalo, confidence leads to upsets.
8) House Protection:
Players from New York: 0
Players from Ohio: 47
House Protection Index: 84 (10 point penalty for no NY pipeline)
Players from New York: 37
Players from Ohio: 10
House Protection Index: 84
9) Key Quarters: 2nd & 3rd Quarter
When Miami wins, they held their opponents to an average of 10 points in the middle of the game. When Miami loses that average jumps to 30 points. Miami plays to jump in front, but with no run game, they rely on the defense to preserve the win.
If Buffalo can score in the 2nd and 3rd, and take a lead into the 4th, Buffalo can run the clock and keep the Miami offense off the field and out of sync. Buffalo has scored 51 points in the 1st, 51 in the 2nd, 38 in the 3rd and 23 in the 4th. If you take out Morgan State the numbers fall to 37 - 30 - 17 - 23. The Bulls will need to come out strong in the 3rd to win.
10) Fun fact: 443
Miami has scored more points on us between 1999 and 2012 than any other MAC team. 443 points. Meanwhile we've scored 213 points on Miami, the 4th most of our MAC opponents. The 230 point deficit is also the largest deficit we have with any MAC team. On average Buffalo scores 16 against Miami and allows 34 points; that is the lowest average points scored and highest average points allowed against any of our current MAC East foes.
On average, we score 18 points less than Miami, our 3rd worst deficit against a MAC foe behind NIU, we lose by 30 on average, and Marshall who outscored us by an average of 33 points during their reign of terror in the MAC.
11) Game Score brought to you by: Science
Buffalo at Ohio and vs Toledo:
average points scored: 25.5
average points allowed: 31.5
Miami vs Ohio and at Cincinnati:
average points scored: 18
average points allowed: 36
Miami (18 points scored + 31.5 UB allows)/2 = 25
UB (25.5 points scored+36 Miami allows)/2 = 31
I'm tempted to downgrade it to 22-17 UB due to the 30% chance of rain, but I'm gonna stay with 31-25, I don't think the rain will arrive in time for the early game start but it will be plenty cold.
Overall 11 Factors Pregame Meal Score: Buffalo 4 - Miami 5.
How close is close enough? Bull nation will continue to ask.